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International Monetary Instability Between the Wars: Structural Flaws or Misguided Policies?

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Barry Eichengreen

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Abstract

This paper reaueses the history of the international monetary system between the wars. It confirms the generality of several widely held interpretationsl of recent experience with floating exchange rates. There is a positive association between nominal exchange rate variability and real exchange rate variability. But policies of intervention which reduce nominal ezchange rate variability do not guarantee a proportionate reduction in nominal exchange rate risk or in real exchange rate variability and unpredictability. A credible commitment to a stable intervention rule is needed to deliver these benefits. The paper then goes on to consider four potential explanations for the collapse of the fixed rate regime that prevailed from 1926 through 1931: (1) failure to play by the "rules of the game", (2) inadequate international economic leadership by the United States, (3) inadequate cooperation among the leading gold standard countries, and (4) structural features of a system in which reserves were comprised of both gold and foreign ezchange. It coocludes by aseessing the role of the internationall monetary system in the Great Depression.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3124.

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Date of creation: Jan 1991
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Publication status: published as The Evolution of the International Monetary System, edited by Yoshio Suzuki , Junichi Miyake, and Mitsuaki Okabe, pp. 71-116. Tokyo: University of Tokyo Press, 1990.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3124

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1988. "Real exchange rate behavior under alternative international monetary regimes : Interwar evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 363-371, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can exchange rate predictability be achieved without monetary convergence? : Evidence from the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 93-115. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nouriel Roubini, 1988. "Offset and Sterilization Under Fixed Exchange Rates With An Optimizing Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 2777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Artis, M. J., 1987. "The European monetary system: An evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 175-198. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  6. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1984. "Can exchange rate predictability be achieved without monetary convergence? : evidence from the EMS," International Finance Discussion Papers 245, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Jeffrey Sachs & Charles Wyplosz, 1984. "Real Exchange Rate Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 1255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "The Comparative Performance of Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes : Interwar Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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