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The Non-Optimality of Optimal Trade Policy: The U.S. Automobile Indust ry Revisited, 1979-1985

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Author Info
Kala Krishna
Kathleen Hogan
Phillip Swagel

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Abstract

We examine the sensitivity of simple calibration models of trade in imperfectly competitive industries to changes in model specification, as well as to changes in the calibration parameters. We find that not just the magnitude, but also the sign of the optimal trade policies is very sensitive to the change in model specification. Indeed, use of policies derived from the 'wrong' model can reduce welfare from the status quo. However, the welfare gains to be obtained from application of the 'correct' model remain limited. Calibration models nonetheless provide useful estimates of firm and market behavior over time, as well qs disaggregated elasticities of demand. We conclude that careful empirical work is necessary to guide model selection. For the present, the case for activist trade policy on the basis of calibration models should not be made.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3118.

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Date of creation: Sep 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3118

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Feenstra, R.C. & Levinsohn, J.A., 1989. "Distance, Demand, And Oligopoly Pricing," Working Papers 245, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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  2. Krishna, Kala, 1989. "Trade restrictions as facilitating practices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 251-270, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Krishna, Kala & Itoh, Motoshige, 1988. "Content Protection and Oligopolistic Interactions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 107-25, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lawrence F. Katz & Lawrence H. Summers, 1989. "Can Inter-Industry Wage Differentials Justify Strategic Trade Policy?," NBER Working Papers 2739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Feenstra, Robert C, 1988. "Quality Change under Trade Restraints in Japanese Autos," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 131-46, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert Driskill & Stephen McCafferty, 1989. "Dynamic Duopoly with Output Adjustment Costs in International Markets: Taking the Conjecture out of Conjectural Variations," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policies for International Competitiveness, pages 125-144 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  7. Richard E. Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1986. "Market Access and International Competition: A Simulation Study of 16K Random Access Memories," NBER Working Papers 1936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kala Krishna & Marie Thursby, 1988. "Optimal Policies with Strategic Distortions," NBER Working Papers 2527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Eaton, Jonathan & Grossman, Gene M, 1986. "Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy under Oligopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 383-406, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. repec:fth:michin:245 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. de Melo, Jaime & Tarr, David, 1990. "Welfare Costs of U.S. Quotas in Textiles, Steel and Autos," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 489-97, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Stiegert, Kyle W. & Wang, Shinn-Shyr, 2003. "Imperfect Competition And Strategic Trade Theory: What Have We Learned," Working Papers 14589, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium. [Downloadable!]
  2. Phillip Swagel, 1993. "Union behavior, industry rents, and optimal policies," International Finance Discussion Papers 459, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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