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An Equilibrium Theory of Excess Volatility and Mean Reversion in Stock Market Prices

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  • Alan J. Marcus

Abstract

Apparent mean reversion and excess volatility in stock market prices can be reconciled with the Efficient Market Hypothesis by specifying investor preferences that give rise to the demand for portfolio insurance. Therefore, several supposed macro anomalies can be shown to be consistent with a rational market in a simple and parsimonious model of the economy. Unlike other models that have derived equilibrium mean reversion in prices, the model in this paper does not require that the production side of the economy exhibit mean reversion. It also predicts that mean reversion and excess volatility will differ substantially across subperiods.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3106.

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Date of creation: Sep 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3106

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  1. William A. Brock & Blake LeBaron, 1989. "Liquidity Constraints in Production Based Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 3107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Leland, Hayne E, 1980. " Who Should Buy Portfolio Insurance?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 581-94, May.
  3. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kim, M.J. & Nelson, C.R. & Startz, R., 1988. "Mean Reversion In Stock Prices? A Reappraisal Of Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 88-15, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  5. Fischer Black, 1989. "Mean Reversion and Consumption Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  7. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Hwahsin Cheng & John Glascock, 2005. "Dynamic Linkages Between the Greater China Economic Area Stock Markets—Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 343-357, June.

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