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Modeling Structural and Temporal Variation in the Market's Valuation of Banking Firms

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Author Info
Edward J. Kane
Haluk Unal
Abstract

This paper decomposes both the market sensitivity and the interest-rate sensitivity of bank stock into on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet components. It derives these constituent and often-offsetting sensitivities from a nonstationary three-equation model that employs accounting and capital-market information to explain cross-sectional and temporal variation in the value of stockholder equity. To control statistically for heteroskedasticity and intrasample differences in unbooked capital positions, the model is estimated separately for three size classes of large U.S. banks. Parameter estimates confirm the importance of "hidden" or unbooked capital at these banks. For the nation's very largest banks, shifts in the value of these parameters are consistent with the view that the capitalized value of federal deposit-insurance guarantees burgeoned in the 1980s with interest volatility, demonstrations of regulatory forbearance, and relaxation of deposit-rate ceilings.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2693.

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Date of creation: May 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2693

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Brickley, James A. & James, Christopher M., 1986. "Access to deposit insurance, insolvency rules and the stock returns of financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 345-371, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Newey, Whitney K., 1984. "A method of moments interpretation of sequential estimators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 201-206. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lloyd, William P. & Shick, Richard A., 1977. "A Test of Stone's Two-Index Model of Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 363-376, September. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lynge, Morgan J. & Zumwalt, J. Kenton, 1980. "An Empirical Study of the Interest Rate Sensitivity of Commercial Bank Returns: A Multi-Index Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 731-742, September. [Downloadable!]
  5. Flannery, Mark J & James, Christopher M, 1984. " The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on the Common Stock Returns of Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1141-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. George G. Kaufman, 1984. "Measuring and managing interest rate risk: A primer," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 16-29. [Downloadable!]
  7. Cheng-few Lee & Elijah Brewer, 1985. "The association between bank stock market-based risk measures and the financial characteristics of the firm: a pooled cross-section time- series approach," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pages 285-315.
  8. Thomson, James B, 1987. "The Use of Market Information in Pricing Deposit Insurance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(4), pages 528-37, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ramon P. DeGennaro & James B. Thomson, 1992. "Capital forbearance and thrifts: an ex post examination of regulatory gambling," Working Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Nikhil Varaiya & David Ely, 1997. "Assessing the Resolution of Insolvent Thrift Institutions post FIRREA: The Impact of Resolution Delays," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 255-282, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert A. Eisenbeis & Gary D. Ferrier & Simon H. Kwan, 1999. "The informativeness of stochastic frontier and programming frontier efficiency scores: Cost efficiency and other measures of bank holding company performance," Working Paper 99-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  4. Joseph P. Hughes & William W. Lang & Choon-Geol Moon & Michael S. Pagano, 2004. "Managerial Incentives and the Efficiency of Capital Structure in U.S. Commercial Banking," Departmental Working Papers 200401, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ying Yan, 1998. "The FDICIA and bank CEOs' pay-performance relationship: an empirical investigation," Working Paper 9805, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hesna Genay, 1998. "Assessing the condition of Japanese banks: how informative are accounting earnings?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 12-34. [Downloadable!]
  7. Anlong Li & Peter Ritchken & L. Sankarasubramanian & James B. Thomson, 1993. "Regulatory taxes, investment, and financing decision for insured banks," Working Paper 9303, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Elyas Elyasiani, 1996. "Derivative Exposure and the Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risks of U.S. Banks," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-53, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ramon P. DeGennaro & James B. Thomson, 1994. "Anticipating bailouts: the incentive-conflict model and the collapse of the Ohio Deposit Guarantee Fund," Working Paper 9407, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Simon H. Kwan & Robert A. Eisenbeis, 1995. "An analysis of inefficiencies in banking: a stochastic cost frontier approach," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Kane, Edward J. & Unal, Haluk & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1991. "Capital positions of Japanese banks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 572, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Elijah Brewer, III & William E. Jackson, III & James T. Moser, 2001. "The value of using interest rate derivatives to manage risk of U.S. banking organizations," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 49-66. [Downloadable!]
  13. Catherine M. Schrand & Haluk Unal, 1995. "Hedging and Coordinated Risk Management: Evidence from Thrift Conversions," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-05, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  14. Elijah Brewer & William Jackson, 2000. "Requiem for a Market Maker: The Case of Drexel Burnham Lambert and Junk Bonds," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 209-235, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gary Gorton & Richard Rosen, 1994. "Corporate Control, Portfolio Choice, and the Decline of Banking," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 95-09, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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