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Deindustrialization, Reindustrialization, and the Real Exchange Rate

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  • Paul R. Krugman

Abstract

This paper models an economy in which it is costly to move resources between the tradeable and nontradeable sectors. The economy is subject to capital flows that are unpredictable and are perceived as having only limited persistence. The model shows that both the fact that capital flows are perceived as temporary and uncertainty per se act to limit the responsivesness of resource reallocation to real exchange rate movements. In turn, this reluctance of factors to move widens the range of real exchange rate variation, so that larger movements of the real exchange rate are needed to accommodate transitory, unpredictable capital flows than would be required to accommodate persistent, predictable flows of the same magnitude. The model also shows that large capital inflows that lead to real exchange rate appreciation large enough to induce resource reallocation will typically be followed by a depreciation of the real exchange rate to below its original level.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2586.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2586.

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Date of creation: May 1988
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Publication status: Published as "Differences in Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates", EER, Vol. 33, no. 5 (1989): 1031-1046.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2586

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  1. Paul R. Krugman, 1987. "Trigger Strategies and Price Dynamics in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 2459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Francesco Giavazzi & Alberto Giovannini, 1990. "Can the European Monetary System be Copied Outside Europe? Lessons from Ten Years of Monetary Policy Coordination in Europe," NBER Chapters, in: International Policy Coordination and Exchange Rate Fluctuations, pages 247-278 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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