IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25538.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Hilary W. Hoynes
  • Jesse Rothstein

Abstract

We discuss the potential role of Universal Basic Incomes (UBIs) in advanced countries. A feature of advanced economies that distinguishes them from developing countries is the existence of well developed, if often incomplete, safety nets. We develop a framework for describing transfer programs, flexible enough to encompass most existing programs as well as UBIs, and use this framework to compare various UBIs to the existing constellation of programs in the United States. A UBI would direct much larger shares of transfers to childless, non-elderly, non-disabled households than existing programs, and much more to middle-income rather than poor households. A UBI large enough to increase transfers to low-income families would be enormously expensive. We review the labor supply literature for evidence on the likely impacts of a UBI. We argue that the ongoing UBI pilot studies will do little to resolve the major outstanding questions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilary W. Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries," NBER Working Papers 25538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25538
    Note: CH LS PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w25538.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    2. Randall Akee & Emilia Simeonova & William Copeland & Adrian Angold & E. Jane Costello, 2013. "Young Adult Obesity and Household Income: Effects of Unconditional Cash Transfers," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-28, April.
    3. Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
    4. James Heckman & Flavio Cunha, 2007. "The Technology of Skill Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 31-47, May.
    5. Lance J. Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2011. "The Nature of Credit Constraints and Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2487-2529, October.
    6. Scholz, John Karl, 1994. "The Earned Income Credit: Participation, Compliance, and Antipoverty Effectiveness," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 47(1), pages 63-87, March.
    7. Day Manoli & Nicholas Turner, 2018. "Cash-on-Hand and College Enrollment: Evidence from Population Tax Data and the Earned Income Tax Credit," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 242-271, May.
    8. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "The Negative Income Tax and the Evolution of U.S. Welfare Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 119-140, Summer.
    9. Gordon B. Dahl & Lance Lochner, 2012. "The Impact of Family Income on Child Achievement: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 1927-1956, August.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 197-236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hum, Derek & Simpson, Wayne, 1993. "Economic Response to a Guaranteed Annual Income: Experience from Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 263-296, January.
    12. Robert A. Moffitt, 2016. "Economics of Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, Volume 1," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moff14-1, March.
    13. Nichols, Albert L & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1982. "Targeting Transfers through Restrictions on Recipients," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 372-377, May.
    14. Randall K. Q. Akee & William E. Copeland & Gordon Keeler & Adrian Angold & E. Jane Costello, 2010. "Parents' Incomes and Children's Outcomes: A Quasi-experiment Using Transfer Payments from Casino Profits," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 86-115, January.
    15. Hilary W. Hoynes & Ankur J. Patel, 2018. "Effective Policy for Reducing Poverty and Inequality?: The Earned Income Tax Credit and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(4), pages 859-890.
    16. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 553-609.
    17. Moffitt, Robert, 1983. "An Economic Model of Welfare Stigma," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1023-1035, December.
    18. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Susanne M. Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 883-931, May.
    19. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695, Elsevier.
    20. Randall Akee & William Copeland & E. Jane Costello & Emilia Simeonova, 2018. "How Does Household Income Affect Child Personality Traits and Behaviors?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 775-827, March.
    21. David Cesarini & Erik Lindqvist & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Robert Östling, 2017. "The Effect of Wealth on Individual and Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Swedish Lotteries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(12), pages 3917-3946, December.
    22. Emmanuel Saez, 2002. "Optimal Income Transfer Programs: Intensive versus Extensive Labor Supply Responses," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 1039-1073.
    23. William N. Evans & Craig L. Garthwaite, 2014. "Giving Mom a Break: The Impact of Higher EITC Payments on Maternal Health," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 258-290, May.
    24. V. Joseph Hotz, 2003. "The Earned Income Tax Credit," NBER Chapters, in: Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, pages 141-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-298, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    26. Bruce D. Meyer & Wallace K. C. Mok & James X. Sullivan, 2009. "The Under-Reporting of Transfers in Household Surveys: Its Nature and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 15181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moff03-1, March.
    28. Karl Widerquist, 2018. "A Critical Analysis of Basic Income Experiments for Researchers, Policymakers, and Citizens," Exploring the Basic Income Guarantee, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-030-03849-6, June.
    29. Danziger, Sheldon & Haveman, Robert & Plotnick, Robert, 1981. "How Income Transfer Programs Affect Work, Savings, and the Income Distribution: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 975-1028, September.
    30. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Riccardo Trezzi & Abigail Wozniak, 2016. "Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 183-259.
    31. José Azar & Ioana Marinescu & Marshall Steinbaum, 2022. "Labor Market Concentration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(S), pages 167-199.
    32. Damon Jones & Ioana Marinescu, 2022. "The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-340, May.
    33. Jesse Rothstein, 2010. "Is the EITC as Good as an NIT? Conditional Cash Transfers and Tax Incidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 177-208, February.
    34. Hilary W. Hoynes & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, 2018. "Safety Nets Investments in Children," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 89-150.
    35. Deaton, Angus & Cartwright, Nancy, 2018. "Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 2-21.
    36. Rema Hanna & Benjamin A. Olken, 2018. "Universal Basic Incomes vs. Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 24939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. David S. Lee, 1999. "Wage Inequality in the United States During the 1980s: Rising Dispersion or Falling Minimum Wage?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 977-1023.
    38. Scholz, John Karl, 1994. "The Earned Income Credit: Participation, Compliance, and Antipoverty Effectiveness," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 47(1), pages 63-87, March.
    39. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    40. Nada Eissa & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "Behavioral Responses to Taxes: Lessons from the EITC and Labor Supply," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20, pages 73-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Ventry, Dennis J. Jr., 2000. "The Collision of Tax and Welfare Politics: The Political History of the Earned Income Tax Credit, 1969-99," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 4), pages 983-1026, December.
    42. David J. Price & Jae Song, 2018. "The Long-Term Effects of Cash Assistance," Working Papers 621, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    43. Moffitt, Robert A. (ed.), 2017. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 31," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226539270, July.
    44. Hilary Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2016. "Tax Policy Toward Low-Income Families," NBER Working Papers 22080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Rema Hanna & Benjamin A. Olken, 2018. "Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 201-226, Fall.
    46. Hilary Hoynes & Doug Miller & David Simon, 2015. "Income, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Infant Health," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 172-211, February.
    47. Jens Ludwig & Jeffrey R. Kling & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2011. "Mechanism Experiments and Policy Evaluations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 17-38, Summer.
    48. Charles Murray, 2016. "In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 886642, September.
    49. Anna Aizer & Shari Eli & Joseph Ferrie & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2016. "The Long-Run Impact of Cash Transfers to Poor Families," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 935-971, April.
    50. Jacob Bastian & Katherine Michelmore, 2018. "The Long-Term Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Children’s Education and Employment Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(4), pages 1127-1163.
    51. Douglas Almond & Hilary W. Hoynes & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, 2011. "Inside the War on Poverty: The Impact of Food Stamps on Birth Outcomes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 387-403, May.
    52. J. A. Mirrlees, 1971. "An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 38(2), pages 175-208.
    53. Robert A. Moffitt, 1979. "The Labor Market Replacement Effect of a Negative Income Tax," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 33(1), pages 85-94, October.
    54. Hilary Hoynes & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach & Douglas Almond, 2016. "Long-Run Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 903-934, April.
    55. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "Introduction to "Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States"," NBER Chapters, in: Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    56. Robert A. Moffitt, 2017. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 31," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moff-4, March.
    57. Moffitt, Robert A. (ed.), 2016. "Economics of Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, Volume II," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226392493, December.
    58. Philip K. Robins, 1985. "A Comparison of the Labor Supply Findings from the Four Negative Income Tax Experiments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 20(4), pages 567-582.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fossen, Frank M. & Sorgner, Alina, 2019. "New Digital Technologies and Heterogeneous Employment and Wage Dynamics in the United States: Evidence from Individual-Level Data," IZA Discussion Papers 12242, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Eduardo Ignacio Polo-Muro, 2021. "The effect of labor market shocks on mental health outcomes: evidence from the Spanish Great Recession," Working Papers 21.08, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    3. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2023. "Automation, automatic capital returns, and the functional income distribution," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 113-135, January.
    4. Juan Carlos Conesa & Bo Li & Qian Li, 2020. "Universal Basic Income and Progressive Consumption Taxes," Department of Economics Working Papers 20-01, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    5. Casas, Pablo & Torres, José L., 2022. "Government size and automation," MPRA Paper 115271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rozane Bezerra de Siqueira & Jose Ricardo Bezerra Nogueira, 2021. "A Universal Basic Income For Brazil: Fiscal and Distributional Effects of Alternative Schemes," Papers 2103.06020, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    7. Ben Spies-Butcher & Ben Phillips & Troy Henderson, 2020. "Between universalism and targeting: Exploring policy pathways for an Australian Basic Income," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 31(4), pages 502-523, December.
    8. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Li, Bo & Li, Qian, 2023. "A quantitative evaluation of universal basic income," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    9. Diego Daruich & Raquel Fernández, 2024. "Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 38-88, January.
    10. Nishant Yonzan & Laxman Timilsina & Inas Rashad Kelly, 2020. "Economic Incentives Surrounding Fertility: Evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend," NBER Working Papers 26712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Riddell, Chris & Riddell, William Craig, 2021. "Welfare versus work under a negative income tax: Evidence from the Gary, Seattle, Denver and Manitoba income maintenance experiments," CLEF Working Paper Series 36, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    12. Fossen, Frank M. & Sorgner, Alina, 2022. "New digital technologies and heterogeneous wage and employment dynamics in the United States: Evidence from individual-level data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    13. Brewer, Mike & Joyce, Robert & Waters, Tom & Woods, Joseph, 2020. "A method for decomposing the impact of reforms on the long-run income distribution, with an application to universal credit," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hilary W. Hoynes & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, 2018. "Safety Nets Investments in Children," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 89-150.
    2. Diego Daruich & Raquel Fernández, 2024. "Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 38-88, January.
    3. David Neumark & Katherine E. Williams, 2020. "Do State Earned Income Tax Credits Increase Participation in the Federal EITC?," NBER Working Papers 27626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bastian, Jacob E. & Jones, Maggie R., 2021. "Do EITC expansions pay for themselves? Effects on tax revenue and government transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach & Michael R. Strain, 2021. "Employment Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit: Taking the Long View," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 87-129.
    6. Jacob Goldin & Elaine Maag & Katherine Michelmore, 2021. "Estimating the Net Fiscal Cost of a Child Tax Credit Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 36, pages 159-195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Nicardo S. McInnis & Katherine Michelmore & Natasha Pilkauskas, 2023. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Poverty and Public Assistance: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit," NBER Working Papers 31429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jorge Rodriguez, 2017. "Understanding the Effects of Income and Child Care Subsidies on Children's Academic Achievement," 2017 Papers pro1077, Job Market Papers.
    9. Bruce D. Meyer, 2010. "The Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit and Recent Reforms," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 153-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Barbara Broadway & Tessa LoRiggio & Chris Ryan & Anna Zhu, 2022. "Literature review on the impact of welfare policy design on children and youth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 809-840, September.
    11. Elliott Isaac, 2020. "Marriage, Divorce, and Social Safety Net Policy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(4), pages 1576-1612, April.
    12. Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Wojciech Kopczuk, 2011. "Transfer Program Complexity and the Take-Up of Social Benefits," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 54-90, February.
    13. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:89-150 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Hoynes, Hilary & Rothstein, Jesse, 2016. "Tax Policy Toward Low-Income Families," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt87d6v10j, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    15. Braga, Breno & Blavin, Fredric & Gangopadhyaya, Anuj, 2020. "The long-term effects of childhood exposure to the earned income tax credit on health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    16. Claudio A., Agostini & Javiera, Selman & Marcela, Perticará, 2013. "Una propuesta de crédito tributario al ingreso para Chile," Estudios Públicos, Centro de Estudios Públicos, vol. 0(129), pages 49-104.
    17. Otto Lenhart, 2021. "Earned income tax credit and crime," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 589-607, July.
    18. Bradley Hardy & Timothy Smeeding & James P. Ziliak, 2018. "The Changing Safety Net for Low-Income Parents and Their Children: Structural or Cyclical Changes in Income Support Policy?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(1), pages 189-221, February.
    19. George Bulman & Robert Fairlie & Sarena Goodman & Adam Isen, 2021. "Parental Resources and College Attendance: Evidence from Lottery Wins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(4), pages 1201-1240, April.
    20. Amelia A. Hawkins & Christopher A. Hollrah & Sarah Miller & Laura R. Wherry & Gloria Aldana & Mitchell D. Wong, 2023. "The Long-Term Effects of Income for At-Risk Infants: Evidence from Supplemental Security Income," NBER Working Papers 31746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Manasi Deshpande & Rebecca Dizon-Ross, 2023. "The (Lack of) Anticipatory Effects of the Social Safety Net on Human Capital Investment," NBER Working Papers 31512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25538. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.