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Global Melting? The Economics of Disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet

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  • William D. Nordhaus

Abstract

Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). The method is to combine a small geophysical model of the GIS with the DICE integrated assessment model. The result shows that the GIS is likely to disappear over the next millennium or so without climate policy, but an active climate policy may prevent the GIS from crossing the threshold of irreversibility. Additionally, the study estimates the impact of the GIS on the social cost of carbon (SCC) and finds that adding GIS dynamics would add less than 5% to the SCC under alternative discount rates and estimates of the GIS dynamics. Simulations of geo-engineering options indicate that the dynamics of disintegration and rebuilding are extremely asymmetric, implying that GIS disintegration should be treated as irreversible.

Suggested Citation

  • William D. Nordhaus, 2018. "Global Melting? The Economics of Disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet," NBER Working Papers 24640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24640
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    4. Diaz, Delavane B., 2015. "Integrated Assessment of Climate Catastrophes with Endogenous Uncertainty: Does the Risk of Ice Sheet Collapse Justify Precautionary Mitigation?," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 206721, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
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    7. Delavane B. Diaz, 2016. "Estimating global damages from sea level rise with the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 143-156, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lint Barrage, 2019. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for William D. Nordhaus," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 884-924, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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