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Portfolio Diversification, Real Interest Rates, and the Balance of Payments

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Carol L. Osler
Abstract

The paper shows that differences in real interest rates across countries can arise even with perfect competition and fully integrated international capital markets. Specifically, we find that factor returns will differ across countries which are identical except for differences in technological riskiness, overall productivity, or labor force size. We also show that differences across countries in technological riskiness, in risk aversion, in population size and in overall productivity will lead to a non-zero current account in the steady state. Higher technological riskiness, greater risk aversion, and a larger population should be associated with a current account surplus. The analysis is carried out using a two-country Diamond overlapping-generations model in which technological uncertainty is reflected in factor returns.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2441.

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Date of creation: Nov 1987
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2441

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  1. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1978. "Uncertainty and International Trade in the Presence of Stock Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2), pages 239-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stulz, ReneM., 1981. "A model of international asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 383-406, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Baron, David P & Forsythe, Robert, 1979. "Models of the Firm and International Trade under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 565-74, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Grauer, Frederick L. A. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Stehle, Richard E., 1976. "Sharing rules and equilibrium in an international capital market under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 233-256, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Boskin, Michael J, 1978. "Taxation, Saving, and the Rate of Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages S3-27, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 769-97, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Carlino, Gerald A., 1982. "Interest rate effects and intertemporal consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 223-234. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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