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Supply and Shorting in Speculative Markets

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  • Marcel Nutz
  • José A. Scheinkman

Abstract

We propose a continuous-time model of trading among risk-neutral agents with heterogeneous beliefs. Agents face quadratic costs-of-carry on their positions and as a consequence, their marginal valuation of the asset decreases when the magnitude of their position increases, as it would be the case for risk-averse agents. In the equilibrium models of investors with heterogeneous beliefs that followed the original work by Harrison and Kreps, investors are risk-neutral, short-selling is prohibited and agents face a constant marginal cost of carrying positions. The resulting resale option guarantees that the equilibrium price exceeds the price of the asset in a static buy-and-hold model where speculation is ruled out. Our model features three main novelties. First, increasing marginal costs entail that the price depends on the exogenous supply. Second, in addition to the resale option, agents may also value an option to delay, and this may cause the market to equilibrate below the static buy-and-hold price. Third, we introduce the possibility of short-selling; then the resale option for agents with short positions partly compensates the resale option for long agents. We characterize the unique equilibrium of our model through a Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation of a novel form and use it to derive several comparative statics results.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Nutz & José A. Scheinkman, 2017. "Supply and Shorting in Speculative Markets," NBER Working Papers 23751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23751
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Charles P. Kindleberger & Robert Z. Aliber, 2005. "Manias, Panics and Crashes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-62804-5, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Bank & Ibrahim Ekren & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2018. "Liquidity in Competitive Dealer Markets," Papers 1807.08278, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    2. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Marcel Nutz & Xiaowei Tan, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Illiquidity," Papers 1905.05730, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance

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