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Hires and Separations in Equilibrium

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  • Edward P. Lazear
  • Kristin McCue

Abstract

Hiring is positively correlated with separation, both across firms and over time. A theory of hiring and separation based on shifts in demand implies the opposite. One firm or industry hires and grows when another fires and contracts. But hiring for expansion and layoff for contraction comprises the minority of hiring and separation. A more accurate view is that hiring and separation reflect churn and are balanced in equilibrium, where one is the mirror image of the other. Hiring occurs primarily to fill vacant slots that open up when a firm separates a worker. Equivalently, a separation results when a worker is hired away by another firm. A model of efficient mobility yields several specific predictions in addition to the positive correlation between hires and separations. Labor market churn is most likely in firms and industries with low mean wages and high wage variance. Additionally, churn decreases during recessions with hires falling first followed by a decline in separations to match hiring. Finally, the young are predicted to bear the brunt of hiring declines. These predictions are borne out in the LEHD microdata at the economy and firm levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward P. Lazear & Kristin McCue, 2017. "Hires and Separations in Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 23059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23059
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    Cited by:

    1. Yusuf Mercan & Benjamin Schoefer, 2020. "Jobs and Matches: Quits, Replacement Hiring, and Vacancy Chains," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 101-124, March.
    2. Georgeanne M. Artz & Liesl Eathington & Jasmine Francois & Melvin Masinde & Peter F. Orazem, 2020. "Churning in Rural and Urban Retail Markets," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 50(1), pages 110-126.
    3. Luz Adriana Flórez & Leonardo Morales Z & Daniel Medina & José Lobo C, 2017. "Labour flows across firm´s size, economic sectors and wages in Colombia: evidence from employer-employee linked panel," Borradores de Economia 1013, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Merkl, Christian & Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2021. "Worker churn in the cross section and over time: New evidence from Germany," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 781-797.
    5. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Merkl, Christian & Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2017. "Worker Churn and Employment Growth at the Establishment Level," IZA Discussion Papers 11063, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Todd Schoellman & Jianyu Lu & Kevin Donovan, 2017. "Firm Size Distributions and Cross-Country Labor Market Outcomes," 2017 Meeting Papers 1571, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Luz A. Flórez & Leonardo Fabio Morales & Daniel Medina & José Lobo, 2021. "Labor flows across firm size, age, and economic sector in Colombia vs. the United States," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1569-1600, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • M0 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - General
    • M00 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - General - - - General
    • M5 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics

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