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The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update

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Ray C. Fair

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Abstract

In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2222.

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Date of creation: May 1989
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Publication status: published as Political Behavior, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 168-179, (1988).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2222

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  1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1994. "Why Did Economic Models Falsely Predict a Bush Landslide in 1992?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 123-30, April.
  3. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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