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The Implications of Richer Earnings Dynamics for Consumption and Wealth

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  • Mariacristina De Nardi
  • Giulio Fella
  • Gonzalo Paz Pardo

Abstract

Earnings dynamics are much richer than those typically used in macro models with heterogenous agents. This paper provides multiple contributions. First, it proposes a simple non-parametric method to model rich earnings dynamics that is easy to estimate and introduce in structural models. Second, it applies our method to estimate a nonparametric earnings process using two data sets: the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a large, synthetic, data set that matches the dynamics of the U.S. tax earnings. Third, it uses a life cycle model of consumption to compare the consumption and saving implications of our two estimated processes to those of a standard AR(1). We find that, unlike the standard AR(1) process, our estimated, richer earnings process generates an increase in consumption inequality over the life cycle that is consistent with the data and better fits the savings of the households at the bottom 60% of the wealth distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella & Gonzalo Paz Pardo, 2016. "The Implications of Richer Earnings Dynamics for Consumption and Wealth," NBER Working Papers 21917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21917
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Ocampo & Gueorgui Kambourov & Daphne Chen & Burhanettin Kuruscu & Fatih Guvenen, 2017. "Use It or Lose It: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation," 2017 Meeting Papers 913, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Jianmin Shi, 2020. "Optimal control of multiple Markov switching stochastic system with application to portfolio decision," Papers 2010.16102, arXiv.org.
    3. Hoffmann, Eran B. & Malacrino, Davide, 2019. "Employment time and the cyclicality of earnings growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-171.
    4. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Stephen J. Turnovsky & Ronald Wendner, 2020. "Dynamic Status Effects, Savings, And Income Inequality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(1), pages 351-382, February.
    5. Leo Kaas & Georgi Kocharkov & Edgar Preugschat & Nawid Siassi, 2021. "Low Homeownership in Germany—a Quantitative Exploration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 128-164.
    6. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan, 2018. "Consumption and Savings Under Non-Gaussian Income Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 314, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Florian Oswald & Costas Meghir & Wenli Li, 2017. "Consumer Bankruptcy and Mortgage Default," 2017 Meeting Papers 1260, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Wouterse, B.; & Hussem, A.; & Wong, A.;, 2018. "The effect of co-payments in Long Term Care on the distribution of payments,consumption, and risk," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 18/24, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2020. "Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-Insurance, and Welfare," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 890-926.
    10. Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella, 2017. "Saving and Wealth Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 280-300, October.
    11. Brant Abbott & Giovanni Gallipoli, 2022. "Permanent‐income inequality," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1023-1060, July.
    12. Barra Roantree & Jonathan Shaw, 2018. "What a difference a day makes: inequality and the tax and benefit system from a long-run perspective," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(1), pages 23-40, March.
    13. Peter Levell & Barra Roantree & Jonathan Shaw, 2021. "Mobility and the lifetime distributional impact of tax and transfer reforms," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(4), pages 751-793, August.
    14. Maiko Koga & Kohei Matsumura, "undated". "Marginal Propensity to Consume and the Housing Choice," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    15. Delalibera, Bruno Ricardo & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Parente, Rafael Machado, 2023. "Social security reforms, retirement and sectoral decisions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 838, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    16. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    17. Theloudis, Alexandros, 2021. "Consumption inequality across heterogeneous families," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    18. Jess Benhabib & Alberto Bisin, 2018. "Skewed Wealth Distributions: Theory and Empirics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1261-1291, December.
    19. Azzimonti, Marina & Yared, Pierre, 2019. "The optimal public and private provision of safe assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 126-144.
    20. Diego Gomes & Cezar Santos & Felipe Iachan, 2019. "Labor Earnings Dynamics with a Large Informal Sector," 2019 Meeting Papers 793, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Bar Light, 2018. "Precautionary Saving in a Markovian Earnings Environment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 138-147, July.
    22. Ignazio Drudi & Giorgio Tassinari & Fabrizio Alboni, 2017. "Changes in wealth distribution in Italy (2002-2012) and who gained from the Great Recession," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(281), pages 129-153.
    23. Laura Feiveson & John Edward Sabelhaus, 2019. "Lifecycle Patterns of Saving and Wealth Accumulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-010, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Gomes, Diego B.P., 2017. "Health care reform or more affordable health care?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 126-153.
    25. Eran B. Hoffmann & Mr. Davide Malacrino, 2018. "Employment Time and the Cyclicality of Earnings Growth," IMF Working Papers 2018/115, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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