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Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?

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  • Matthew D. Shapiro

Abstract

Measured productivity is strongly procyclical. Real business cycle theories suggest that actual fluctuations in productivity are the source of fluctuations in aggregate output. Keynesian theories maintain that fluctuations in aggregate output come from shocks to aggregate demand. Keynesian theories appeal to labor hoarding or off the production function behavior to explain the procyclicality of productivity. If observed productivity shocks are true productivity shocks, a function of factor prices should covary exactly with productivity. In annual data for U.S. industries, that function of factor prices and conventionally-measured productivity move together very closely. Moreover, their difference is uncorrelated with aggregate output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2147.

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Date of creation: Feb 1987
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Publication status: published as Shapiro, Matthew D. "Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks of Demand Shocks?" From The American Economic Review, Vol. 77, No. 2, pp. 118-124, (May 1987).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2147

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  1. Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Some skeptical observations on real business cycle theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 23-27.
  2. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "Investment, Output, and the Cost of Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 111-164.
  3. Robert E. Hall, 1986. "The Relation Between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 1785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Staff Report 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  6. Hendrik S. Houthhakker, 1979. "Growth and Inflation: Analysis by Industry," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 241-257.
  7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  8. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Tor Jakob Klette & Zvi Griliches, 1992. "The Inconsistency of Common Scale Estimators When Output Prices Are Unobserved and Engogenous," NBER Working Papers 4026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Altug, Sumru G. & Filiztekin, Alpay, 1999. "Estimates of the Returns to Scale for US Manufacturing," CEPR Discussion Papers 2121, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Francisco J. Goerlich, 1994. "Comportamiento cíclico de la productividad en la industria: shocks de oferta versus shocks de demanda," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(3), pages 491-515, September.
  4. Falk, Martin & Raiser, Martin & Brauer, Holger, 1996. "Making sense of the J-curve: Capital utilisation, output, and total factor productivity in Polish industry 1990 - 1993," Kiel Working Papers 723, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Paquet, Alain & Robidoux, Benoit, 2001. "Issues on the measurement of the Solow residual and the testing of its exogeneity: Evidence for Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 595-612, June.
  6. J. Bradford De Long, 1990. "Interpreting Procyclical Productivity Movements: Evidence from a Cross-Nation Cross-Industry Panel," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _136, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  7. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1989. "Increasing Returns, Durables and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Francisco J. Goerlich-Gisbert, 1999. "Shocks agregados versus shocks sectoriales. Un análisis factorial dinámico," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 27-53, January.
  9. Michael J. Hicks, 2007. "Hierarchical delays as a source of nominal price rigidities: evidence from the microcomputer industry," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 803-815.
  10. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 1999. "Productivity Growth and Factor Prices in East Asia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 133-138, May.
  11. Bennett T. McCallum, 1988. "Real Business Cycle Models," NBER Working Papers 2480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South financial integration and business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. Michael Woodford, 1990. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 3361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1987. "Measuring Market Power in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 2212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Jacques Miniane, 2004. "Productivity Shocks, Learning, and Open Economy Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 04/88, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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