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Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?

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Matthew D. Shapiro

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Abstract

Measured productivity is strongly procyclical. Real business cycle theories suggest that actual fluctuations in productivity are the source of fluctuations in aggregate output. Keynesian theories maintain that fluctuations in aggregate output come from shocks to aggregate demand. Keynesian theories appeal to labor hoarding or off the production function behavior to explain the procyclicality of productivity. If observed productivity shocks are true productivity shocks, a function of factor prices should covary exactly with productivity. In annual data for U.S. industries, that function of factor prices and conventionally-measured productivity move together very closely. Moreover, their difference is uncorrelated with aggregate output.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2147.

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Date of creation: May 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2147

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "Investment, Output, and the Cost of Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1986-1), pages 111-164. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-47, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hendrik S. Houthhakker, 1979. "Growth and Inflation: Analysis by Industry," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1979-1), pages 241-257. [Downloadable!]
  5. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Some skeptical observations on real business cycle theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 23-27. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South financial integration and business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bennett T. McCallum, 1990. "Real Business Cycle Models," NBER Working Papers 2480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Tor Jakob Klette & Zvi Griliches, 1996. "The Inconsistency of Common Scale Estimators When Output Prices Are Unobserved and Engogenous," NBER Working Papers 4026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1987. "Measuring Market Power in U.S. Industry," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 828, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jacques Miniane, 2004. "Productivity Shocks, Learning, and Open Economy Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 04/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Francisco J. Goerlich, 1994. "Comportamiento cíclico de la productividad en la industria: shocks de oferta versus shocks de demanda," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(3), pages 491-515, September. [Downloadable!]
  7. Altug, Sumru G. & Filiztekin, Alpay, 1999. "Estimates of the Returns to Scale for US Manufacturing," CEPR Discussion Papers 2121, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Michael Woodford, 1990. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 3361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jesus Felipe & J. S. L. McCombie, 2004. "On The Rental Price Of Capital And The Profit Rate: The Perils And Pitfalls Of Total Factor Productivity Growth," CAMA Working Papers 2004-10, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:1339-1339 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 1999. "Productivity Growth and Factor Prices in East Asia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 133-138, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Francisco J. Goerlich-Gisbert, 1999. "Shocks agregados versus shocks sectoriales. Un análisis factorial dinámico," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 27-53, January. [Downloadable!]
  13. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  14. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1989. "Increasing Returns, Durables and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Michael J. Hicks, 2007. "Hierarchical delays as a source of nominal price rigidities: evidence from the microcomputer industry," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 803-815. [Downloadable!]
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