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Dividend and Share Changes: Is There a Financing Hierarchy?

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Robert L. McDonald
Naomi Soderstrom
Abstract

The most widely accepted empirical dividend model is that proposed by Lintner, who argued that firms smooth dividends over time. Many theoretical dividend models, however, either predict that dividends should be highly variable, or at least offer no support for the smoothing hypothesis. We use a switching regression model to test the Lintner model against an alternative which allows dividend behavior to differ depending upon whether or not firms are issuing shares. We reject the Lintner model, finding no evidence of dividend smoothing when firms are not issuing shares, and a high negative dividend growth rate when firms are issuing shares. This description of dividend behavior suggests the existence of a financing hierarchy in that the marginal source of finance differs over time. To further explore the financing hierarchy, we estimate logit models which explain the decisions by firms to change dividends, and to issue or repurchase shares. The results are consistent with the existence of a financing hierarchy.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2029.

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Date of creation: Sep 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2029

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  1. Lee, Lung-Fei & Trost, Robert P., 1978. "Estimation of some limited dependent variable models with application to housing demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 357-382, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ofer, Aharon R & Thakor, Anjan V, 1987. " A Theory of Stock Price Responses to Alternative Corporate Cash Disbursement Methods: Stock Repurchases and Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 365-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Alan J. Auerbach, 1984. "Taxes, Firm Financial Policy and the Cost of Capital: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Sudipto Bhattacharya, 1979. "Imperfect Information, Dividend Policy, and "The Bird in the Hand" Fallacy," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 259-270, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ang, James S., 1976. "The Intertemporal Behavior of Corporate Debt Policy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(04), pages 555-566, November. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Peterson, Pamela P. & Peterson, David R. & Ang, James S., 1985. "Direct evidence on the marginal rate of taxation on dividend income," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 267-282, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bradley, Michael & Jarrell, Gregg A & Kim, E Han, 1984. " On the Existence of an Optimal Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 857-78, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Taub, Allan J, 1975. "Determinants of the Firm's Capital Structure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(4), pages 410-16, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Miller, Merton H. & Scholes, Myron S., 1978. "Dividends and taxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 333-364, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Auerbach, Alan J, 1979. "Wealth Maximization and the Cost of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 433-46, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Miller, Merton H, 1986. "Behavioral Rationality in Finance: The Case of Dividends," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S451-68, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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