The Future of U.S. Economic Growth
AbstractModern growth theory suggests that more than 3/4 of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, U.S. economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19830.
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of US Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 44-49, May.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brent Neiman, 2013.
"The Global Decline of the Labor Share,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990.
"A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction,"
DELTA Working Papers
90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel & David M. Byrne, 2013.
"Is the information technology revolution over?,"
37301, American Enterprise Institute.
- Jones, C.I., 2000.
"Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas,"
99-29, United Nations World Employment Programme-.
- Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
- Charles I. Jones, . "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," Working Papers 98009, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August.
- Joseph Zeira, 1998.
"Workers, Machines, And Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117, November.
- Miguel Casares & Hashmat U. Khan, 2014. "Entry, Exit and Economic Growth: US Regional Evidence," Carleton Economic Papers 14-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.