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The Welfare Cost of Uncertain Tax Policy

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Jonathan S. Skinner

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Abstract

Frequent shifts in tax policy can increase uncertainty about future net-of-tax wages and interest income. This paper measures the impact of uncertain tax policy on savings, labor supply, and welfare in the United States. A vector autoregression model with six variables was estimated which found the standard error of the one-year-ahead forecast for the wage tax to be 1.8 percentage points, and for the interest income tax 3.3 percentage points. Furthermore, the negative correlation between unanticipated shifts in the real interest rate and changes in the interest income tax amplifies the variability in the real after-tax return. A two-period model of consumption and labor supply is developed that measures the effect of uncertain taxes on savings, work hours, and taxpayer welfare. Using plausible empirical parameters, it is shown that removing all uncertainty about future tax policy can lead to a welfare gain of 0.4 percent of national income, or about 12 billion dollars in 1985.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1947.

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Date of creation: Jun 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1947

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  1. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Skinner, Jonathan, 1983. "The Efficiency Gains from Dynamic Tax Reform," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 81-100, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert E. Hall, 1985. "Real Interest and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 1694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Seater, John J., 1985. "On the construction of marginal federal personal and social security tax rates in the U.S," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 121-135, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1968. "The Effects of Income, Wealth, and Capital Gains Taxation on Risk Taking," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 248, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Robert J. Barro, 1984. "The Behavior of U.S. Deficits," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 32, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
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  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kanbur, S M Ravi, 1983. "Labour Supply under Uncertainty with Piecewise Linear Tax Regimes," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(200), pages 379-94, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Eaton, Jonathan & Rosen, Harvey S., 1980. "Labor supply, uncertainty, and efficient taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 365-374, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Alan J. Auerbach & James R. Hines Jr., 1986. "Tax Reform, Investment, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Weber, Warren E, 1975. "Interest Rates, Inflation, and Consumer Expenditures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 843-58, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Robert J. Barro & Chaipat Sahasakul, 1984. "Measuring the Average Marginal Tax Rate from the Individual Income Tax," NBER Working Papers 1060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Young Chun, 2001. "The Redistributive Effect of Risky Taxation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 433-454, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rainer Niemann, 2001. "Tax Rate Uncertainty and Investment Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rainer Niemann, 2007. "The Impact of Tax Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rainer Niemann, 2004. "Tax Rate Uncertainty, Investment Decisions, and Tax Neutrality," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 265-281, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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