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Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News

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  • Lauren Cohen
  • Dong Lou
  • Christopher Malloy

Abstract

We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on more favorable analysts experience more negative future earnings surprises and more future earnings restatements. A long-short portfolio that exploits this differential firm behavior earns abnormal returns of up to 149 basis points per month, or almost 18 percent per year. We find similar evidence in an international sample of earnings call transcripts from the UK, Canada, France, and Japan. Firms with higher discretionary accruals, firms that barely meet/exceed earnings expectations, and firms (and their executives) that are about to issue equity, sell shares, and exercise options, are all significantly more likely to cast their earnings calls.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauren Cohen & Dong Lou & Christopher Malloy, 2013. "Playing Favorites: How Firms Prevent the Revelation of Bad News," NBER Working Papers 19429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19429
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    Cited by:

    1. Marianne Andries & Valentin Haddad, 2020. "Information Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(5), pages 1901-1939.
    2. Kristian D. Allee & Matthew D. Deangelis, 2015. "The Structure of Voluntary Disclosure Narratives: Evidence from Tone Dispersion," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 241-274, May.
    3. Boulland, Romain & Dessaint, Olivier, 2017. "Announcing the announcement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 59-79.
    4. Chen, Yangyang & Fan, Qingliang & Yang, Xin & Zolotoy, Leon, 2021. "CEO early-life disaster experience and stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Chahine, Salim & Mansi, Sattar & Mazboudi, Mohamad, 2015. "Media news and earnings management prior to equity offerings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 177-195.
    6. Houdou Basse Mama & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2017. "Investor Relations' Quality and Mispricing," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Zeckhauser, Richard, 2017. "Straight Talkers and Vague Talkers: The Effects of Managerial Style in Earnings Conference Calls," Working Paper Series rwp17-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    8. Mansouri, Sasan, 2021. "Does firm's silence drive media's attention away?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242433, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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