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'Lucas' In The Laboratory

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  • Elena Asparouhova
  • Peter Bossaerts
  • Nilanjan Roy
  • William Zame

Abstract

This paper reports on experimental tests of an instantiation of the Lucas asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents and time-varying private income streams. Central features of the model (infinite horizon, perishability of consumption, stationarity) present difficult challenges and require a novel experimental design. The experimental evidence provides broad support for the qualitative pricing and consumption predictions of the model (prices move with fundamentals, agents smooth consumption) but sharp differences from the quantitative predictions emerge (asset prices display excess volatility, agents do not hedge price risk). Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) tests of the stochastic Euler equations yield very different conclusions depending on the instruments chosen. It is suggested that the qualitative agreement with and quantitative deviation from theoretical predictions arise from agents' expectations about future prices, which are almost self-fulfilling and yet very different from what they would need to be if they were exactly self-fulfilling (as the Lucas model requires).

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19068.

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Date of creation: May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19068

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  1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  2. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
  4. Thomas M. Mertens & Tarek A. Hassan, 2010. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," 2010 Meeting Papers 370, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Dunn, Kenneth B. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 1986. "Modeling the term structure of interest rates under non-separable utility and durability of goods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 27-55, September.
  6. Duffie, J Darrell & Huang, Chi-fu, 1985. "Implementing Arrow-Debreu Equilibria by Continuous Trading of Few Long-lived Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1337-56, November.
  7. Ian Martin, 2013. "The Lucas Orchard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 55-111, 01.
  8. Kenneth L. Judd & Felix Kubler & Karl Schmedders, 2000. "Asset Trading Volume with Dynamically Complete Markets and Heterogeneous Agents," Discussion Papers 1294, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  9. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
  10. Timothy J Kehoe & David K Levine, 1993. "Debt Constrained Asset Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1276, David K. Levine.
  11. John Duffy, 2010. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach to Asset Pricing Experiments," Working Papers 398, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2010.
  12. John Duffy & Sean Crockett, 2010. "An Experimental Test of the Lucas Asset Pricing Model," Working Papers 504, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised May 2013.
  13. Elena Asparouhova, 2006. "Competition in Lending: Theory and Experiments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(2), pages 189-219.
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