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Disagreement and Asset Prices

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  • Bruce I. Carlin
  • Francis A. Longstaff
  • Kyle Matoba

Abstract

How do differences of opinion affect asset prices? Do investors earn a risk premium when disagreement arises in the market? Despite their fundamental importance, these questions are among the most controversial issues in finance. In this paper, we use a novel data set that allows us to directly measure the level of disagreement among Wall Street mortgage dealers about prepayment speeds. We examine how disagreement evolves over time and study its effects on expected returns, return volatility, and trading volume in the mortgage-backed security market. We find that increased disagreement is associated with higher expected returns, higher return volatility, and larger trading volume. These results imply that there is a positive risk premium for disagreement in asset prices. We also show that volatility in and of itself does not lead to higher trading volume. Rather, it is only when disagreement arises in the market that higher uncertainty is associated with more trading. Finally, we are able to distinguish empirically between two competing hypotheses regarding how information in markets gets incorporated into asset prices. We find that sophisticated investors appear to update their beliefs through a rational expectations mechanism when disagreement arises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18619.

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Date of creation: Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18619

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References

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  1. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
  2. Sris Chatterjee & Kose John & An Yan, 2012. "Takeovers and Divergence of Investor Opinion," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 227-277.
  3. Geanakoplos, John D. & Polemarchakis, Heraklis M., 1982. "We can't disagree forever," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 192-200, October.
  4. Varian, Hal R, 1985. " Divergence of Opinion in Complete Markets: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 309-17, March.
  5. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun & Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2009. "Dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts and credit rating," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 83-101, January.
  6. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  7. Cheolbeom Park, 2005. "Stock Return Predictability and the Dispersion in Earnings Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2351-2376, November.
  8. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
  9. Alexander David, 2008. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Speculation, and the Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 41-83, 02.
  10. Snehal Banerjee, 2011. "Learning from Prices and the Dispersion in Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3025-3068.
  11. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Muhamet Yildiz, 2007. "Learning and Disagreement in an Uncertain World," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 48, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  12. Sara B. Moeller & Frederik P. Schlingemann & René M. Stulz, 2007. "How Do Diversity of Opinion and Information Asymmetry Affect Acquirer Returns?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 2047-2078, November.
  13. Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
  14. Snehal Banerjee & Ilan Kremer, 2010. "Disagreement and Learning: Dynamic Patterns of Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1269-1302, 08.
  15. Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-34.
  16. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
  17. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  18. Basak, Suleyman, 2005. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2849-2881, November.
  19. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The impact of valuation disagreement on asset prices
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-01-21 16:12:00

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