Government Spending and Private Activity
AbstractThis paper asks whether increases in government spending stimulate private activity. The first part of the paper studies private spending. Using a variety of identification methods and samples, I find that in most cases private spending falls significantly in response to an increase in government spending. These results imply that the average GDP multiplier lies below unity. In order to determine whether concurrent increases in tax rates dampen the spending multiplier, I use two different methods to adjust for tax effects. Neither method suggests significant effects of current tax rate changes on the spending multiplier. In the second part of the paper, I explore the effects of government spending on labor markets. I find that increases in government spending lower unemployment. Most specifications and samples imply, however, that virtually all of the effect is through an increase in government employment, not private employment. I thus conclude that on balance government spending does not appear to stimulate private activity.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17787.
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Valerie A. Ramey. "Government Spending and Private Activity," in Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, editors, "Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis" University of Chicago Press (2013)
Note: EFG ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2012-02-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2012-02-20 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daniel J. Wilson, 2010. "Fiscal spending multipliers: evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," Working Paper Series 2010-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- JonasD.M. Fisher & Ryan Peters, 2010.
"Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 414-436, 05.
- Jonas D. M. Fisher & Ryan Peters, 2009. "Using stock returns to identify government spending shocks," Working Paper Series WP-09-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Brückner, Markus & Pappa, Evi, 2010. "Fiscal expansions affect unemployment, but they may increase it," CEPR Discussion Papers 7766, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1993. "Testing Identifiability and Specification in Instrumental Variable Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 222-240, April.
- James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gomes, Pedro Maia, 2010.
"Fiscal Policy and the Labour Market: The Effects of Public Sector Employment and Wages,"
IZA Discussion Papers
5321, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Pedro Gomes, 2011. "Fiscal policy and the labour market: the effects of public sector employment and wages," European Economy - Economic Papers 439, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010.
"Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
16311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence, 2013.
"Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of ‘Keynesian’ Policies in 1930s’ Britain,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
1018, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C, 2012. "Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of ‘Keynesian’ Policies in 1930s’ Britain," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 102, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
- Nicholas Crafts & Terence C. Mills, 2012. "Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of ‘Keynesian’ Policies in 1930s’ Britain," Working Papers 0031, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.