The Impacts of the Affordable Care Act: How Reasonable Are the Projections?
AbstractThe Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) is the most comprehensive reform of the U.S. medical system in at least 45 years. The ACA transforms the non-group insurance market in the United States, mandates that most residents have health insurance, significantly expands public insurance and subsidizes private insurance coverage, raises revenues from a variety of new taxes, and reduces and reorganizes spending under the nation’s largest health insurance plan, Medicare. Projecting the impacts of such fundamental reform to the health care system is fraught with difficulty. But such projections were required for the legislative process, and were delivered by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This paper discusses the projected impact of the ACA in more detail, and describes the evidence that sheds light upon the accuracy of the projections. It begins by reviewing in broad details the structure of the ACA and then reviews evidence from a key case study that informs our understanding of the ACA’s impacts: a comparable health reform that was carried out in Massachusetts four years earlier. The paper discusses the key results from that earlier reform and what they might imply for the impacts of the ACA. The paper ends with a discussion of the projected impact of the ACA and offers some observations on those estimates.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17168.
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Note: HC HE PE
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
- I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-07-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-HEA-2011-07-02 (Health Economics)
- NEP-IAS-2011-07-02 (Insurance Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cogan John F & Hubbard R. Glenn & Kessler Daniel, 2010. "The Effect of Massachusetts' Health Reform on Employer-Sponsored Insurance Premiums," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-8, June.
- repec:nbr:nberch:6790 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jonathan Gruber, 2011. "Massachusetts points the way to successful health care reform," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 184-192, December.
- Gruber, Jonathan, 2011. "The Tax Exclusion For Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 64(2), pages 511-30, June Cita.
- Jonathan Gruber, 2008. "Covering the Uninsured in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 571-606, September.
- James M. Poterba (ed.), 2002. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 16," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661292, January.
- Richard V. Burkhauser & Sean Lyons & Kosali I. Simon, 2011. "The Importance of the Meaning and Measurement of “Affordable” in the Affordable Care Act," NBER Working Papers 17279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.