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Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields

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  • Michael J. Roberts
  • Wolfram Schlenker

Abstract

Extreme heat is the single best predictor of corn and soybean yields in the United States. While average yields have risen continuously since World War II, we find no evidence that relative tolerance to extreme heat has improved between 1950 and 2005. Climate change forecasts project a sharp increase in extreme heat by the end of the century, with the potential to significantly reduce yields under current technologies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16308.

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Date of creation: Aug 2010
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Publication status: published as Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields , Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker. in The Design and Implementation of U.S. Climate Policy , Fullerton and Wolfram. 2012
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16308

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  1. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2010. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," NBER Working Papers 15921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
  3. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
  4. Nancy T. Gallini & Brian D. Wright, 1990. "Technology Transfer under Asymmetric Information," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(1), pages 147-160, Spring.
  5. repec:reg:wpaper:291 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Olivier Desch´┐Żnes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
  7. Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G. & Roseboom, Johannes, 1998. "Financing agricultural research: International investment patterns and policy perspectives," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1057-1071, June.
  8. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2011. "The Evolution of Heat Tolerance of Corn: Implications for Climate Change," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 225-251 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Barrows, Geoffrey & Sexton, Steven & Zilberman, David, 2013. "The Impact of Agricultural Biotechnology on Supply and Land-Use," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt3rg0c0fz, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  2. Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce McCarl, 2014. "How is CO 2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 747-762, June.

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