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The Valuation of Long-Dated Assets

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  • Ian Martin

Abstract

The expected time- and risk-adjusted cumulative return on any asset equals one at all horizons. Nonetheless, I show that a typical asset's realized time- and risk-adjusted cumulative return tends to zero almost surely. As a corollary, the value of a typical long-dated asset is driven by extreme events: either by good news at the level of the individual asset or by bad news at the aggregate level. In the case of the aggregate market, the fact that its Sharpe ratio is higher than its volatility suggests that bad news is the relevant consideration in practice.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16219.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Publication status: published as Ian Martin, 2012. "On the Valuation of Long-Dated Assets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 346 - 358.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16219

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Cited by:
  1. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Lucas Orchard," NBER Working Papers 17563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gollier, Christian, 2013. "A theory of rational short-termism with uncertain betas," IDEI Working Papers 771, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  3. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Asset pricing with uncertain betas: A long-term perspective," IDEI Working Papers 752, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  4. Beeler, Jason & Campbell, John Y., 2012. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Scholarly Articles 9887621, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Martin L. Weitzman, 2012. "Rare Disasters, Tail-Hedged Investments, and Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 18496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Dutt, Tanuj & Humphery-Jenner, Mark, 2013. "Stock return volatility, operating performance and stock returns: International evidence on drivers of the ‘low volatility’ anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 999-1017.
  7. Koijen, Ralph & Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2012. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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