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International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Thomas F. Helbling

Abstract

In this paper, we review and attempt to explain the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries and the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then examine the role of global shocks and shock transmission in the trend toward synchronization. Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks generally are the dominant influence.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16103.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Publication status: published as Michael D. Bordo & Thomas F. Helbling, 2011. "International Business Cycle Synchronization In Historical Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 208-238, 03.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16103

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  1. Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Jongwoo Kim, 1998. "Was There Really an Earlier Period of International Financial Integration Comparable to Today?," NBER Working Papers 6738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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Cited by:
  1. Ewa Szymanik, 2012. "Business Cycles and Their International Transmission – the Introduction to the Problem," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 55-72.
  2. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2013. "The emergence of a European region: Business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 13/01, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  3. Tiago Trancoso, 2013. "Global macroeconomic interdependence: a minimum spanning tree approach," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 5(1), pages 179-189, June.
  4. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.
  5. Michael D. Bordo & John S. Landon-Lane, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08: Is it Unprecedented?," NBER Working Papers 16589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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