Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

CEO Overconfidence and Innovation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Alberto Galasso
  • Timothy S. Simcoe

Abstract

Are CEOs’ attitudes and beliefs linked to their fims’ innovative performance? This paper uses Malmendier and Tate’s measure of overconfidence, based on CEO stock-option exercise, to study the relationship between a CEO’s “revealed beliefs” about future performance and standard measures of corporate innovation. We begin by developing a career concern model where CEOs innovate to provide evidence of their ability. The model predicts that overconfident CEOs, who underestimate the probability of failure, are more likely to pursue innovation, and that this effect is larger in more competitive industries. We test these predictions on a panel of large publicly traded firms for the years 1980 to 1994. We find a robust positive association between overconfidence and citation-weighted patent counts in both cross-sectional and fixed-effect models. This effect is larger in more competitive industries. Our results suggest that overconfident CEOs are more likely to take their firms in a new technological direction.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16041.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16041.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as CEO Overconfidence and Innovation (paper + online appendix); with Tim Simcoe; Management Science; Issue: 57; 2011; Pages: 1469-1484.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16041

Note: PR
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2010. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-035, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Holger Herz & Daniel Schunk & Christian Zehnder, 2013. "How Do Judgmental Overconfidence and Overoptimism Shape Innovative Activity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4084, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Hirshleifer, David & Low, Angie & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2010. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," MPRA Paper 22425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Avi Goldfarb & Teck-Hua Ho & Wilfred Amaldoss & Alexander Brown & Yan Chen & Tony Cui & Alberto Galasso & Tanjim Hossain & Ming Hsu & Noah Lim & Mo Xiao & Botao Yang, 2012. "Behavioral models of managerial decision-making," Marketing Letters, Springer, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 405-421, June.
  5. Yusuke Kinari & Noriko Mizutani & Fumio Ohtake & Hiroko Okudaira, 2011. "Overconfidence Increases Productivity," ISER Discussion Paper, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University 0814, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.