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Fiscal Rules in India: Are They Effective?

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  • Willem H. Buiter
  • Urjit R. Patel

Abstract

This paper, a chapter in the forthcoming Oxford University Press Handbook of the Indian Economy, edited by Chetan Ghate, considers India's experience with fiscal (responsibility) rules during the past decade. After reviewing the basic facts concerning public debt and deficits in India, the background and basic arithmetic of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003 (FRBMA) are presented and commented upon. With the very small number of data points at our disposal, no formal statistical estimation and hypothesis testing about the efficacy of the rules can even be attempted. Instead we critically explore the outcomes of the FRBMA over the 5-year period of its operation, 2004/05-2008/09, using an eclectic but comprehensive metric comprising quantitative targets, qualitative strictures, transparency, integrity, and overall financial performance over the business cycle. We also briefly review fiscal responsibility legislation (and outcomes) at the state level. The evidence suggests that in recent years the fiscal space "vacated" by the states has been usurped by the central government. Finally, the recommendations of the 13th Finance Commission regarding a roadmap for fiscal consolidation are examined. We also outline a basic incentive compatible framework for state and central governments to hold each other accountable over agreed pre-determined targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem H. Buiter & Urjit R. Patel, 2010. "Fiscal Rules in India: Are They Effective?," NBER Working Papers 15934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15934
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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
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    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Bhattacharya, Saugata & Patel, Urjit R., 2008. "The Power Sector in India: An Inquiry into the Efficacy of the Reform Process," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 211-283.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    6. Buiter, Willem H. & Patel, Urjit R., 1992. "Debt, deficits, and inflation: An application to the public finances of India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 171-205, March.
    7. Alan J. Auerbach, 2008. "Federal Budget Rules: The US Experience," NBER Working Papers 14288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Patel, Urjit R. & Bhattacharya, Saugata, 2010. "Infrastructure in India: The economics of transition from public to private provision," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 52-70, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Truong Nguyen, 2013. "Estimating India's Fiscal Reaction Function," ASARC Working Papers 2013-05, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    2. Nandi, Aurodeep, 2019. "Fiscal deficit targeting alongside flexible inflation targeting: India’s fiscal policy transmission," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Anantha Ramu M.R. & K. Gayithri, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation versus Infrastructural Obligations," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 9(1), pages 49-67, June.
    4. V. V. S. Rama Krishna, 2014. "Consolidation Of Fiscal Front Of States In India," Working papers 2014-03-13, Voice of Research.
    5. Eduardo López E. & Víctor Riquelme P. & Ercio Muñoz S., 2011. "Long – Term Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 633, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Hakhu, Antra Bhatt, 2015. "Productive Public Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: An Error Correction Representation using Indian Data," Working Papers 15/149, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Sangita Misra & Rajiv Ranjan, 2018. "Fiscal rules and procyclicality: an empirical analysis," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 207-228, December.
    8. Krishanu Pradhan, 2019. "Analytical Framework for Fiscal Sustainability: A Review," Review of Development and Change, , vol. 24(1), pages 100-122, June.
    9. Krishanu Pradhan, 2018. "Assessment of India’s Fiscal and External Sector Vulnerability: A Balance Sheet Approach," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(3), pages 308-332, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations

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