Reassessing FHA Risk
AbstractFederal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance has doubled over the past two years and is projected to redouble to $1.5 trillion over the next five. Despite clear signs of strain in the FHA’s Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund, a recent actuarial review indicates that the FHA will not need any form of government support. We identify four risk factors that make such a funding request more likely; the review underestimates how many FHA borrowers are underwater and in economic distress; it uses measures of house values that lower loss estimates; it does not incorporate early-warning signals of future losses that are available from mortgage delinquency; and it ignores potential risks associated with recent down-payment assistant programs despite higher losses on previous programs of this type. We propose measures that could be taken to improve the predictive accuracy of FHA risk assessment.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15802.
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Note: EFG ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Finn Poschmann, 2011. "What Governments Should Do in Mortgage Markets," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 318, January.
- Steven Laufer, 2013. "Equity extraction and mortgage default," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013.
"The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
- Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2011. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: evidence from New York City," MPRA Paper 33941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Brent Smith, 2012. "Lending Through the Cycle: The Federal Housing Administration’s Evolving Risk in the Primary Market," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 40(3), pages 253-271, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.