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The US Productivity Slowdown, the Baby Boom, and Management Quality

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James Feyrer

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Abstract

This paper examines whether management changes caused by the entry of the baby boom into the workforce explain the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and resurgence in the 1990s. Lucas (1978) suggests that the quality of managers plays a significant role in determining output. If there is heterogeneity across workers and management skill improves with experience, an influx of young workers will lower the overall quality of management and lower total factor productivity. Census data shows that the entry of the baby boom resulted in more managers being hired from the smaller, pre baby boom cohorts. These marginal managers were necessarily of lower quality. As the boomers aged and gained experience, this effect was reversed, increasing managerial quality and raising total factor productivity. Using the Lucas model as a framework, a calibrated model of managers, workers, and firms suggests that the management effects of the baby boom may explain roughly 20 percent of the observed productivity slowdown and resurgence.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15474.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15474

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

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