Risk Allocation, Debt Fueled Expansion and Financial Crisis
AbstractIn this paper we discuss how several macroeconomic features of the 2001-2009 period may have resulted from a process in which financial markets were trying to allocate risk between heterogeneous agents when productive investment opportunities are scarce. We begin by showing how heterogeneity in terms of risk tolerance can cause financial markets to propagate transitory shocks and induce higher output volatility, albeit with a higher mean. We then show how this simple heterogeneous agent framework can explain an expansion driven by the growth in consumer debt, and why the equilibrium path of such an economy is likely fragile. In particular, we demonstrate that the emergence of a small amount of asymmetric information can make the economy susceptible to changes in expectations that can induce large reversals of financial flows, the freezing of assets and a recession that can persist despite high productivity.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15110.
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2009-07-03 (Business Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2009-07-03 (Macroeconomics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Eric van Wincoop & Cedric Tille & Philippe Bacchetta, 2010. "On the Dynamics of Leverage, Liquidity, and Risk," 2010 Meeting Papers 393, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2012. "News, Credit Spreads and Default Costs: An expectations-driven interpretation of the recent boom-bust cycle in the U.S," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-04, McMaster University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.