There were substantial fluctuations in the numbers of American overseas travelers, especially before World War II. These fluctuations in travel around the robust, long term upward trend are the focus of this paper. We first identify those fluctuations in the raw data and then try to explain the pattern of overseas travel in a quantitative way. As we show, despite the impact of a myriad of episodic events, the fluctuations in travel can be explained to a large extent by changes in the direct price of travel, changes in per capita GDP in the U.S., the extent of travel in the preceding year, and by periods of armed conflict in Europe. We attempt to explain some of the remaining variation for specific episodes in which the actual level of travel differed substantially from the predicted.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
14847.
Length: Date of creation: Apr 2009 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14847
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Find related papers by JEL classification: L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
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