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Vanishing Third World Emigrants?

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Author Info
Timothy J. Hatton
Jeffrey G. Williamson

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Abstract

This paper documents a stylized fact not well appreciated in the literature. The Third World has been undergoing an emigration life cycle since the 1960s, and, except for Africa, emigration rates have been level or even declining since a peak in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. The current economic crisis will serve only to accelerate those trends. The paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving these Third World emigration life cycles to the United States since 1970 -- the income gap between the US and the sending country, the education gap between the US and the sending country, the poverty trap, the size of the cohort at risk, and migrant stock dynamics. It then projects the life cycle up to 2024. The projections imply that pressure on Third World emigration over the next two decades will not increase. It also suggests that future US immigrants will be more African and less Hispanic than in the past.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14785.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14785

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Demographic shocks and global factor flows," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ximena Clark & Timothy J Hatton & Jeffrey G Williamson, 2007. "Explaining U.S. Immigration, 1971-1998," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 359-373, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Nehru, Vikram & Swanson, Eric & Dubey, Ashutosh, 1995. "A new database on human capital stock in developing and industrial countries: Sources, methodology, and results," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 379-401, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Easterlin, Richard A., 1981. "Why Isn't the Whole World Developed?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(01), pages 1-17, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
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  6. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1992. "What Drove the Mass Migrations from Europe in the Late Nineteenth Century?," NBER Historical Working Papers 0043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kevin H. O’Rourke, 2009. "Power and Plenty in 2030," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp298, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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