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Dynamic Globalization and Its Potentially Alarming Prospects for Low-Wage Workers

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Author Info
Hans Fehr
Sabine Jokisch
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

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Abstract

Will incomes of low and high skilled workers continue to diverge? Yes says our paper's dynamic, six-good, five-region -- U.S., Europe, N.E. Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong), China, and India -- general equilibrium, life-cycle model. The model predicts a near doubling of the ratio of high- to low-skilled wages over the century. Increasing wage inequality arises from a traditional source -- a rising worldwide relative supply of unskilled labor, reflecting Chinese and Indian productivity improvements. But China's and India's education policies matter. If successive Chinese and Indian cohorts become more skilled, major exacerbation of inequality will be precluded.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14527.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14527

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F0 - International Economics - - General
F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
H0 - Public Economics - - General
H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
O0 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
O23 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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  1. Thomas Lemieux, 2006. "Increasing Residual Wage Inequality: Composition Effects, Noisy Data, or Rising Demand for Skill?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 461-498, June. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Shatz, Howard J, 1996. "U.S. Trade with Developing Countries and Wage Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 234-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
  4. Zvi Eckstein & Éva Nagypál, 2004. "The evolution of U.S. earnings inequality: 1961?2002," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Dec, pages 10-29. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2005. "The Effects of Technical Change on Labor Market Inequalities," Working Papers 89, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies.. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 1996. "Globalization, Outsourcing, and Wage Inequality," NBER Working Papers 5424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2003. "Income Inequality In The United States, 1913-1998," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 1-39, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bound, John & Johnson, George, 1992. "Changes in the Structure of Wages in the 1980's: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 371-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2005. "Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Re-Assessing the Revisionists," NBER Working Papers 11627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 1999. "The Impact Of Outsourcing And High-Technology Capital On Wages: Estimates For The United States, 1979-1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(3), pages 907-940, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. David Altig et al., 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Smetters, Kent & Walliser, Jan, 2007. "Mitigating America's demographic dilemma by pre-funding social security," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 247-266, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. David Card & John E. DiNardo, 2002. "Skill Biased Technological Change and Rising Wage Inequality: Some Problems and Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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