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Market Responses to the Panic of 2008

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Author Info
Casey Mulligan
Luke Threinen

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Abstract

We model the panic of 2008 as part of the wealth and substitution effects deriving from a housing price crash that began in 2006. The dissipation of the wealth effect stimulates a reorganization of the banking industry and increases in employment, GDP, and unemployment. The release of resources from the housing sector lowers investment goods prices, and thereby devalues existing non-residential capital while stimulating non-residential investment. These predictions are compared with measured U.S. economic performance from 2006 to 2008 Q2.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14446.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14446

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John P. Harding & Xiaozhing Liang & Stephen L. Ross, 2007. "The Optimal Capital Structure of Banks: Balancing Deposit Insurance, Capital Requirements and Tax-Advantaged Debt," Working papers 2007-29, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," NBER Working Papers 10855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1992. "Transitional Dynamics in Two-Sector Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Casey B. Mulligan, 1998. "Pecuniary Incentives to Work in the United States during World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1033-1077, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Casey B. Mulligan, 2008. "A Depressing Scenario: Mortgage Debt Becomes Unemployment Insurance," NBER Working Papers 14514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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