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Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Option-Implied State Prices

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Author Info
Yacine Aït-Sahalia
Michael W. Brandt

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Abstract

We propose an empirical implementation of the consumption-investment problem using the martingale representation alternative to dynamic programming. Our method is based on the direct observation of state prices from options data. This greatly simplifies the investor's task of specifying the investment opportunity set and inherits the computational convenience of the martingale representation. Our method also makes explicit the economic trade-off between exploiting differences in state prices and probabilities, which generate variation in consumption, and the consumption smoothing induced by risk aversion. Using options-implied information, we find quantitatively different optimal consumption and portfolio policies than those implied by standard return dynamics.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13854.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13854

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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  1. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ait-Sahalia, Y. & Brandt, M.W., 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Papers 34, Manitoba - Department of Economics.
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  3. Overdahl, James A., 1988. "The Early Exercise of Options on Treasury Bond Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(04), pages 437-449, December. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 63-91, March. [Downloadable!]
  6. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jérôme B. Detemple & René Garcia & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2003. "A Monte Carlo Method for Optimal Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 401-446, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Banz, Rolf W & Miller, Merton H, 1978. "Prices for State-contingent Claims: Some Estimates and Applications," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 653-72, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ivo Welch, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm122, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2003. "Nonparametric pricing of multivariate contingent claims," Staff Reports 162, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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