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Is the GED an Effective Route to Postsecondary Education for School Dropouts?

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John H. Tyler
Magnus Lofstrom

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Abstract

We use data from the Texas Schools Microdata Panel (TSMP) to examine the extent to which dropouts use the GED as a route to post-secondary education. The paper develops a model pointing out the potential biases in estimating the effects of taking the "GED path" to postsecondary education. Lacking suitable instruments that would allow us to directly address potential biases, our approach is to base our estimates on a set of academically "at risk" students who are very similar in the 8th grade. We observe that the eventual high school graduates in this group have much better postsecondary education outcomes than do the similar at-risk 8th graders who dropped out and obtained a GED. Our model explains the observed differences, and allows for a discussion of the policy challenges inherent in improving the postsecondary outcomes of dropouts.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13816.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13816

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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  1. John H. Tyler & Richard J. Murnane & John B. Willett, 2000. "Estimating The Labor Market Signaling Value Of The GED," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(2), pages 431-468, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tyler, John H. & Murnane, Richard J. & Willett, John B., 2003. "Who benefits from a GED? Evidence for females from High School and Beyond," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 237-247, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John H. Tyler, 2004. "Does the G.E.D. improve earnings? Estimates from a sample of both successful and unsuccessful G.E.D. candidates," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 57(4), pages 579-598, July.
  4. James J. Heckman & Yona Rubinstein, 2001. "The Importance of Noncognitive Skills: Lessons from the GED Testing Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 145-149, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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