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Lessons from the 1979-1982 Monetary Policy Experiment

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  • Benjamin M. Friedman

Abstract

The experience of U.S. monetary policy during 1979-82 provided useful and potentially important new evidence about how monetary policy affects economic activity. This paper considers, inthe light of that evidence, six familiar propositions supporting the use of monetary aggregate targets for monetary policy. These propositions deal with money and nominal income, with price inflation and real economic growth, and with long-term interest rates. The evidence from the1979-82 experiment leads to doubt rather than confidence in each of these six propositions, and hence doubt rather than confidence in the use of monetary aggregate targets.

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  • Benjamin M. Friedman, 1984. "Lessons from the 1979-1982 Monetary Policy Experiment," NBER Working Papers 1272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1272
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    Cited by:

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    3. Daniel J. Richards, 1993. "What inflation policy do American voters want, and do they get it?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 33-44.
    4. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
    5. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 255-269, April.
    6. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2020. "Iluzii financiare, Partea întâi [Financial Illusions, Part 1]," MPRA Paper 101201, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jun 2020.
    7. David Laidler, 2007. "Successes and Failures of Monetary Policy Since the 1950s," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20072, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.
    8. Alikhanov, Murat & Taylor, Leon, 2013. "An algorithm for estimating the volatility of the velocity of money," MPRA Paper 49313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. I. Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & P.G.A. Howells, 2012. "Income velocity and non-GDP transactions in the UK," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 97-110, March.
    10. Karl Pinno & Apostolos Serletis, 2016. "Money, Velocity, and the Stock Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 671-695, September.
    11. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Maki Nayeri, Majid, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and the demand for money in the United Kingdom: Are the effects asymmetric?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 76-84.
    12. Shehu El-Rasheed & Hussin Abdullah & Jauhari Dahalan, 2017. "Monetary Uncertainty and Demand for Money Stability in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 601-607.
    13. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
    14. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Majid Maki Nayeri, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Australia: an Asymmetry Analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 456-469, December.
    16. Dilruba Yesmin Smrity & Muhaiminul Islam Selim, 2020. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Bangladesh: An Analysis of VECM Model," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(4), pages 241-247, December.
    17. S. M. Woahid Murad, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Uncertainty on Money Demand Function in Bangladesh: A Nonlinear ARDL and Cumulative Fourier Causality Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-13, September.
    18. Ono, Sadayuki, 2019. "Term structure dynamics in a monetary economy with learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 730-745.
    19. Peter Howells & Iris Biefang Frisancho-Mariscal, 2010. "Recent Developments in Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1017, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    20. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Bradley W. Bateman, 2013. "Rethinking the Monetarist Experience: Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy in the United States," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(1), pages 161-179.
    21. David Laidler, 2013. "Mark Blaug on the quantity theory: a skirmish on the border between science and ideology in the history of economic thought," Chapters, in: Marcel Boumans & Matthias Klaes (ed.), Mark Blaug: Rebel with Many Causes, chapter 7, pages 63-77, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Guerello, Chiara, 2016. "The effect of investors’ confidence on monetary policy transmission mechanism," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 248-266.
    23. Dorothy Nampewo & Jacob Opolot, 2016. "Financial Innovations and Money Velocity in Uganda," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(4), pages 371-382, December.

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