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Financial Innovation for an Aging World

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  • Olivia S. Mitchell
  • John Piggott
  • Michael Sherris
  • Shaun Yow

Abstract

Over the last half-century, around the world, many nations have seen plummeting fertility rates and mounting life expectancies. These two factors are the engine behind unprecedented global aging. In this paper, we explore how the demographic transition may influence financial markets and, in turn, how financial market innovation might help resolve concerns flowing from global aging trends. We first provide context by reviewing the economics, finance, and insurance-related literature on how global aging patterns may influence capital markets. We then turn to insurance markets, and discuss a range of products and policies, including both retail and wholesale financial offerings for various forms of life annuities, long-term care benefits, reverse mortgages, securitization of longevity risk, inflation-protected assets, reinsurance, guarantees, derivative contracts on residential property price indices, mortality swaps and longevity derivative contracts. We also indicate how new public-private partnerships might be beneficial in enhancing the future environment for old-age risk management.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12444.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12444

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References

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  1. Marie-Eve Lachance & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2002. "Guaranteeing Defined Contribution Pensions: The Option to Buy-Back a Defined Benefit Promise," NBER Working Papers 8731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mitchell, Olivia S. & Piggott, John, 2004. "Unlocking housing equity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 466-505, December.
  3. James F. Moore & Olivia S. Mitchell, . "Projected Retirement Wealth and Saving Adequacy," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-1, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
  4. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(2), pages 3.
  5. Salvador Valdés-Prieto, 2005. "Securitization of taxes implicit in PAYG pensions," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 215-265, 04.
  6. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will bequests attenuate the predicted meltdown in stock prices when baby boomers retire?," Working Papers 01-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 241-326.
  8. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Does Social Security Privatization Produce Efficiency Gains?," Working Papers wp106, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  9. Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia Mitchell & Ivica Dus, 2006. "Optimizing the Retirement Portfolio: Asset Allocation, Annuitization, and Risk Aversion," Working Papers wp124, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  10. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2003. "Private Information and its Effect on Market Equilibrium: New Evidence from Long-Term Care Insurance," NBER Working Papers 9957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Darius Lakdawalla & Tomas Philipson, 1998. "The Rise in Old Age Longevity and the Market for Long-Term Care," NBER Working Papers 6547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
  13. Alan M Garber, 2001. "Health Care," Levine's Working Paper Archive 391749000000000153, David K. Levine.
  14. E Philip Davis, 2006. "How Will Ageing Affect the Structure of Financial Markets?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia.
  15. Andrew Dick & Alan M. Garber & Thomas E. MaCurdy, 1994. "Forecasting Nursing Home Utilization of Elderly Americans," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in the Economics of Aging, pages 365-394 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Robert J. Shiller, 1998. "Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational, and International Risk Sharing," JCPR Working Papers 43, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  17. Yijia Lin & Samuel H. Cox, 2005. "Securitization of Mortality Risks in Life Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 227-252.
  18. Alex Cowley & J. David Cummins, 2005. "Securitization of Life Insurance Assets and Liabilities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 193-226.
  19. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
  20. Robin Brooks, 2006. "Demographic Change and Asset Prices," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia.
  21. Grant M Scobie & John K Gibson, 2003. "Household Saving Behaviour in New Zealand: Why do Cohorts Behave Differently?," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/32, New Zealand Treasury.
  22. David McCarthy & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2003. "International Adverse Selection in Life Insurance and Annuities," NBER Working Papers 9975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Pauly, Mark V, 1990. "The Rational Nonpurchase of Long-term-Care Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(1), pages 153-68, February.
  24. Engelhardt, Gary V. & Poterba, James M., 1991. "House prices and demographic change: Canadian evidence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 539-546, December.
  25. André Babeau & Teresa Sbano, 2003. "Household Wealth in the National Accounts of Europe, the United States and Japan," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2003/2, OECD Publishing.
  26. Olivia S. Mitchell & John Piggott & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2004. "Aged-Care Support in Japan: Perspectives and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 10882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ferro, Gustavo, 2008. "On annuities: an overview of the issues," MPRA Paper 20209, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2009.
  2. Maria Chiuri & Tullio Jappelli, 2010. "Do the elderly reduce housing equity? An international comparison," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 643-663, March.
  3. Nicolas R. Blancher & François Haas & John Kiff & Oksana Khadarina & Paul S. Mills & Parmeshwar Ramlogan & William Lee & Yoon Sook Kim & Todd Groome & Shinobu Nakagawa, 2006. "The Limits of Market-Based Risk Transfer and Implications for Managing Systemic Risks," IMF Working Papers 06/217, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Ferro, Gustavo, 2008. "Un impulso al mercado de rentas vitalicias en España
    [Promoting the annuities market in Spain]
    ," MPRA Paper 20211, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2008.
  5. Christiane Nickel & Johan Almenberg, 2006. "Ageing, pension reforms and capital market development in transition countries," Working Papers 99, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  6. Stevens, R.S.P. & De Waegenaere, A.M.B. & Melenberg, B., 2011. "Longevity Risk and Natural Hedge Potential in Portfolios Of Life Insurance Products: The Effect of Investment Risk," Discussion Paper 2011-036, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Hazel Bateman & Susan Thorp, 2007. "Choices and Constraints over Retirement Income Streams: Comparing Rules and Regulations," Research Paper Series 200, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

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