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The Effect of Anticipated Tax Changes on Intertemporal Labor Supply and the Realization of Taxable Income

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Adam Looney
Monica Singhal

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Abstract

We use anticipated changes in tax rates associated with changes in family composition to estimate intertemporal labor supply elasticities and elasticities of taxable income with respect to the net-of-tax wage rate. Changes in the ages of children can affect marginal tax rates through provisions of the tax code that are tied to child age and dependent status. We identify behavioral responses to these tax changes by comparing families who experienced a tax rate change to families who had a similar change in dependents but no resulting tax rate change. A primary advantage of our approach is that these changes can be anticipated, allowing us to estimate substitution effects that are not confounded by life-cycle income effects. We estimate an intertemporal elasticity of family labor earnings of 0.75 for families earning between $35,000 and $85,000 in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and find very similar estimates using the IRS-NBER individual tax panel.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12417.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12417

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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Cited by:
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  1. Emmanuel Saez & Joel B. Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2009. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 15012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jane K. Dokko, 2008. "The effect of taxation on lifecycle labor supply: results from a quasi-experiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Raj Chetty, 2008. "Is the Taxable Income Elasticity Sufficient to Calculate Deadweight Loss? The Implications of Evasion and Avoidance," NBER Working Papers 13844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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