Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets
Abstract
We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied volatilities of stock and bond options when the economic data is released. We also examine the relationship between our measure of macroeconomic uncertainty and trading activity in stock and bond option markets before and after the announcements. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater reduction in implied volatilities. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty is also associated with increased volume in option markets after the release, consistent with market participants waiting to trade until economic uncertainty is resolved, and with decreased open interest in option markets after the release, consistent with market participants using financial options to hedge macroeconomic uncertainty. The empirical relationships are strongest for long-term bonds and weakest for non-cyclical stocks.Download Info
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12270.Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12270
Note: AP
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Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2009. "Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-45.
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-06-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2006-06-17 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CBA-2006-06-17 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FIN-2006-06-17 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-06-17 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2006-06-17 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MST-2006-06-17 (Market Microstructure)
- NEP-SEA-2006-06-17 (South East Asia)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Geert Bekaert & Marie Hoerova & Martin Scheicher, 2009. "What Do Asset Prices Have to Say About Risk Appetite and Uncertainty?," Working Paper Series 1037, European Central Bank.
- Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2007. "Market sidedness: insights into motives for trade initiation," Staff Reports 292, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- George J. Jiang & Ingrid Lo & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Information Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery -- Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Working Papers 08-22, Bank of Canada.
- Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2009.
"Learning in Financial Markets,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7127, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 14646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nieto, Belén & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2011. "The volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors and economic cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2197-2216, September.
- Alejandro Bernales & Massimo Guidolin, 2012. "Can We Forecast the Implied Volatility Surface Dynamics of Equity Options? Predictability and Economic Value Tests," Working Papers 456, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2008. "Stochastic risk premiums, stochastic skewness in currency options, and stochastic discount factors in international economies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 132-156, January.
- Belén Nieto & Gonzalo Rubio, 2007. "Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors," Economics Working Papers 1029, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2007.
- Fornari, Fabio, 2010. "Assessing the compensation for volatility risk implicit in interest rate derivatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 722-743, September.
- Fabio Fornari, 2008. "Assessing the compensation for volatility risk implicit in interest rate derivatives," Working Paper Series 859, European Central Bank.
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