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Optimal Market Timing

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Author Info
Erica X. N. Li
Dmitry Livdan
Lu Zhang

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Abstract

We use a fully-specified neoclassical model augmented with costly external equity as a laboratory to study the relations between stock returns and equity financing decisions. Simulations show that the model can simultaneously and in many cases quantitatively reproduce: procyclical equity issuance; the negative relation between aggregate equity share and future stock market returns; long-term underperformance following equity issuance and the positive relation of its magnitude with the volume of issuance; the mean-reverting behavior in the operating performance of issuing firms; and the positive long-term stock price drift of firms distributing cash and its positive relation with book-to-market. We conclude that systematic mispricing seems unnecessary to generate the return-related evidence often interpreted as behavioral underreaction to market timing.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12014.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12014

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pástor, Luboš & Taylor, Lucian & Veronesi, Pietro, 2007. "Entrepreneurial Learning, the IPO Decision, and the Post-IPO Drop in Firm Profitability," CEPR Discussion Papers 6061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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