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Bilateral FDI Flows: Threshold Barriers and Productivity Shocks

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  • Assaf Razin
  • Efraim Sadka
  • Hui Tong

Abstract

A positive productivity shock in the host country tends typically to increase the volume of the desired FDI flows to the host country, through the standard marginal profitability effect. But, at the same time, such a shock may lower the likelihood of making any new FDI flows by the source country, through a total profitability effect, derived from the a general-equilibrium increase in domestic input prices. This is the gist of the theory that we develop in the paper. For a sample of 62 OECD and Non-OECD countries over the period 1987-2000, we provide supporting evidence for the existence of such conflicting effects of productivity change on bilateral FDI flows. We also uncover sizeable threshold barriers in our data set and link the analysis to the Lucas Paradox.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11639.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Publication status: published as Razin, Assaf, Efraim Sadka and Hui Tong. "Bilateral FDI Flows: Threshold Barriers and Productivity Shocks." CESifo Economic Studies 54, 3 (2008):451-470.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11639

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  1. Ghironi, Fabio & Melitz, Marc, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," Scholarly Articles 3228377, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Fernando Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Why do emerging economies borrow short term?," Economics Working Papers 838, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2011.
  3. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein & Efraim Sadka, 2004. "Which Countries Export FDI and How Much?," Working Papers 152004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Javorcik Beata Smarzynska & Wei Shang-Jin, 2003. "Pollution Havens and Foreign Direct Investment: Dirty Secret or Popular Myth?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-34, December.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. David L. Carr & James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 1998. "Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," NBER Working Papers 6773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Gravity-defying trade," Working Papers 03-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  8. Kevin H. Zhang & James R. Markusen, 1997. "Vertical Multinationals and Host-Country Characteristics," NBER Working Papers 6203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Globalization in Historical Perspective," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord03-1, October.
  10. Amiti, Mary, 1998. "Inter-industry trade in manufactures: Does country size matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 231-255, April.
  11. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Loungani, Prakash & Mody, Ashoka & Razin, Assaf, 2002. "The Global Disconnect: The Role of Transactional Distance and Scale Economies in Gravity Equations," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 526-43, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Aisbett, Emma, 2007. "Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment: Correlation versus Causation," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt72m4m1r0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/132, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Markus Leibrecht & Aleksandra Riedl, 2012. "Modelling FDI based on a spatially augmented gravity model: Evidence for Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Paper Series in Economics 239, University of L√ľneburg, Institute of Economics.
  4. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does openness to international financial flows raise productivity growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 554-580, June.
  5. Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Foreign direct investment in the enlarged EU: do taxes matter and to what extent?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Lawless, Martina, 2009. "Tax Complexity and Inward Investment," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
  7. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2006. "Vying for Foreign Direct Investment: A EU-type Model of Tax Competition," NBER Working Papers 11991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Theo S Eicher & Lindy Helfman & Alex Lenkoski, 2011. "Robust FDI Determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging In The Presence Of Selection Bias," Working Papers UWEC-2011-07-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  9. Alexander Jordan & Alex Lenkoski, 2012. "Tobit Bayesian Model Averaging and the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," Papers 1205.2501, arXiv.org.
  10. Selen Guerin & Stefano Manzocchi, 2009. "Political regime and FDI from advanced to emerging countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 75-91, April.
  11. Nziramasanga, Mudziviri & Inaba, Frederick S. & Shreay, Sanatan, 2011. "Do Bilateral Investment Treaties Deliver the Goods? Evidence from Developing Countries," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 7(1-2).

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