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Shunto, Rational Expectations, and Output Growth in Japan

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  • Herschel I. Grossman
  • William S. Haraf

Abstract

This paper describes a theoretical and empirical study of the Japanese macroeconomy that focuses on the role of predetermined nominal wages in the relation between monetary policy and aggregate output. The main features of the model are that nominal wage rates set at Shunto are equal to rational expectations of the nominal wage rates that would be consistent with target levels of real output and that firms determine employment and output by equating marginal productivities to real wage rates. The essential implication of the model is that the current deviation of aggregate output from its target level depends only on innovations in inflation and productivity since the last Shunto. The equation derived to implement the model empirically relates current aggregate output growth in a precise way to past values of output growth and inflation since the last Shunto and includes an explicit specification of a white noise error term. The results of econometric analysis of this restricted model equation are consistent with the hypothesis that nominal wages predetermined according to Shunto with rational expectations are important tor the determination of real aggregates. The empirical analysis, however, also suggests that the assumptions about monetary policy used to close the model are not adequate, a result that leads to directions for further research.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1144.

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Date of creation: Jun 1983
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Publication status: published as Empirical Economics, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 193-213, (1989).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1144

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  1. Boschen, John F. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1982. "Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 309-333.
  2. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Fougère, Denis & Gautier, Erwan, 2010. "Wage Rigidity, Collective Bargaining and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from French Agreement Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 7932, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Giovanni Olivei & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Wage setting patterns and monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 10-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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