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Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Volatility and External Vulnerability

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  • Sebastian Edwards
  • Roberto Rigobon

Abstract

We use high frequency data and a new econometric methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows. We focus on Chile's experience during the 1990s and investigate whether controls on capital inflows reduced Chile's vulnerability to external shocks. We recognize that changes in the controls will affect the way in which different macro variables relate to each other. We take this problem seriously, and we develop a methodology to deal explicitly with it. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) A tightening of capital controls on inflows depreciates the exchange rate. (b) We find that the "vulnerability" of the nominal exchange rate to external factors decreases with a tightening of the capital controls. And (c), we find that a tightening of capital controls increases the unconditional volatility of the exchange rate, but makes this volatility less sensitive to external shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11434.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11434

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  1. M. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio, 1996. "Exchange rate policies and capital account management: Chile in the 1990s," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 465-488.
  3. Edwards, Sebastian & Edwards, Alejandra Cox, 1991. "Monetarism and Liberalization," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226184890, April.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
  7. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 197-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October.
  9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 7265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Salvador Valdés-Prieto & Marcelo Soto, 1998. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 133-164, January.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  12. Forbes, Kristin J., 2007. "One cost of the Chilean capital controls: Increased financial constraints for smaller traded firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 294-323, April.
  13. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Inflows into Latin America: A Stop-Go Story?," NBER Working Papers 6441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bernard Laurens & Jaime Cardoso, 1998. "Managing Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 98/168, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Peter B. Kenen, 2001. "International Financial Architecture: What's New? What's Missing?, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 335.
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Cited by:
  1. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 409, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Ilan Noy & Tam B. Vu, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment," Working Papers 200708, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  3. Nicolas Magud & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-10, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  4. Franklin Huaita & Manuel Agosín Trumper, 2007. "Why Should Emerging-Market Countries (Still) Concern Themselves With Capital Inflows?," Working Papers wp268, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Magud, Nicolas, 2007. "Capital controls: An evaluation," MPRA Paper 14097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2007. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 645-674 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Alan M. Taylor & Antoni Estevadeordal, 2009. "Is the Washington Consensus Dead?: Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s-2000s," IDB Publications 9298, Inter-American Development Bank.
  7. Benedict J. Clements & Herman Kamil, 2009. "Are Capital Controls Effective in the 21st Century? the Recent Experience of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 09/30, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Melecky, Martin, 2008. "An alternative framework for foreign exchange risk management of sovereign debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4458, The World Bank.
  9. Vanessa Da Costa Val Munhoz & Gilberto Libânio, 2011. "Revisitando Os Controles De Capitais:Notas Teóricas E Evidências Empíricas," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 202, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  10. Thomas I. Palley, 2009. "Rethinking the Economics of Capital Mobility and Capital Controls," Working Papers wp193, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  11. Fatma Marrakchi Charfi, 2013. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: What Is the Scope of Liberalization for Tunisia?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(4), pages 515-540, June.
  12. Concha, Alvaro & Galindo, Arturo José & Vasquez, Diego, 2011. "An assessment of another decade of capital controls in Colombia: 1998–2008," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 319-338.

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