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The Value Spread as a Predictor of Returns

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Author Info
Naiping Lu
Lu Zhang

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Abstract

Recent studies have used the value spread to predict aggregate stock returns to construct cash-flow betas that appear to explain the size and value anomalies. We show that two related variables, the book-to-market spread (the book-to-market of value stocks minus that of growth stocks) and the market-to-book spread (the market-to-book of growth stocks minus that of value stocks) predict returns in different directions and exhibit opposite cyclical variations. Most important, the value spread mixes information on the book-to-market and market-to-book spreads, and appears much less useful in predicting returns.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11326.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11326

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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    Other versions:
  4. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jiang, Danling, 2006. "Investor Overreaction, Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations, and Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2006-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Michail Koubouros, 2005. "Intertemporal Market Risks and the Cross-Section of Greek Average Returns," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1610206, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
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