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The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations

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  • Alwyn Young
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    Abstract

    This paper simulates the impact of the AIDS epidemic on future living standards in South Africa. I emphasize two competing effects. On the one hand, the epidemic is likely to have a detrimental impact on the human capital accumulation of orphaned children. On the other hand, widespread community infection lowers fertility, both directly, through a reduction in the willingness to engage in unprotected sexual activity, and indirectly, by increasing the scarcity of labour and the value of a woman's time. I find that even with the most pessimistic assumptions concerning reductions in educational attainment, the fertility effect dominates. The AIDS epidemic, on net, enhances the future per capita consumption possibilities of the South African economy.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10991.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2004
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    Publication status: published as Young, Alwyn. "The Gift Of The Dying: The Tragedy Of AIDS And The Welfare Of Future African Generations," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2005, v120(2,May), 423-466.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10991

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    1. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
    2. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    3. David Evans & Edward Miguel, 2007. "Orphans and schooling in africa: a longitudinal analysis," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 35-57, February.
    4. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
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    6. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2004. "Orphans in Africa: Parental Death, Poverty and School Enrollment," Working Papers, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Health and Wellbeing. 256, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Health and Wellbeing..
    7. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, October.
    8. Killingsworth, Mark R. & Heckman, James J., 1987. "Female labor supply: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 103-204 Elsevier.
    9. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
    10. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
    11. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2002. "Orphans in Africa," NBER Working Papers 9213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Epstein, Larry G, 1981. "Generalized Duality and Integrability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 655-78, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. David Canning, 2006. "The Economics of HIV/AIDS in Low-Income Countries: The Case for Prevention," PGDA Working Papers, Program on the Global Demography of Aging 1806, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    2. Arndt, Channing, 2006. "HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic growth prospects for Mozambique," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 477-489, July.
    3. David N. Weil, 2005. "Accounting for the Effect of Health on Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 11455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 251, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Luca, MARCHIORI, 2007. "ChinAfrica : How can the Sino-African cooperation be beneficial for Africa ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques), Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques 2007014, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    6. Lammers, J. & Meijdam, A.C. & Verbon, H.A.A., 2007. "HIV/AIDS Contamination Risk, Savings and the Welfare Effects of Diagnostic Testing," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 2007-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

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