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Do the Rich Flee from High State Taxes? Evidence from Federal Estate Tax Returns

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Jon Bakija
Joel Slemrod

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Abstract

This paper examines how changes in state tax policy affect the number of federal estate tax returns filed in each state, utilizing data on federal estate tax return filings by state and wealth class for 18 years between 1965 and 1998. Controlling for state- and wealth-class specific fixed effects, we find that high state inheritance and estate taxes and sales taxes have statistically significant, but modest, negative impacts on the number of federal estate tax returns filed in a state. High personal income tax and property tax burdens are also found to have negative effects, but these results are somewhat sensitive to alternative specifications. This evidence is consistent with the notion that wealthy elderly people change their real (or reported) state of residence to avoid high state taxes, although it could partly reflect other modes of tax avoidance as well. We discuss the implications for the debate over whether individual states should decouple' their estate taxes from federal law, which would retain the state tax even as the federal credit for such taxes is eliminated. Our results suggest that migration and other observationally equivalent avoidance activities in response to such a tax would cause revenue losses and deadweight losses, but that these would not be large relative to the revenue raised by the tax.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10645.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10645

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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  7. Karen Smith Conway & Jonathan C. Rork, 2004. "Diagnosis Murder: The Death of State Death Taxes," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 537-559, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Andrew Leigh, 2005. "Can Redistributive State Taxes Reduce Inequality?," CEPR Discussion Papers 490, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mark Rider, 2006. "The Effect of Personal Income Tax Rates on Individual and Business Decisions - A Review of the Evidence," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0615, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
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