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R-Squared Around the World: New Theory and New Tests

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  • Li Jin
  • Stewart C. Myers

Abstract

Morck, Yeung and Yu (MYY, 2000) show that R2 and other measures of stock market synchronicity are higher in countries with less developed financial systems and poorer corporate governance. MYY and Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel and Xu (2001) also find a secular decline in R2 in the United States over the last century. We develop a model that explains these results and generates additional testable hypotheses. The model shows how control rights and information affect the division of risk-bearing between inside managers and outside investors. Insiders capture part of the firm's operating cash flows. The limits to capture are based on outside investors' perception of the value of the firm. The firm is not completely transparent, however. Lack of transparency shifts firm-specific risk to insiders and reduces the amount of firm-specific risk absorbed by outside investors. Our model also predicts that opaque' stocks are more likely to crash, that is, to deliver large negative returns. Crashes occur when insiders have to absorb too much firm-specific bad news and decide to give up.' We test these predictions using stock returns from all major stock markets from 1990 to 2001. We find strong positive relationships between R2 and several measures of opaqueness. These measures also explain the frequency of large negative returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Jin & Stewart C. Myers, 2004. "R-Squared Around the World: New Theory and New Tests," NBER Working Papers 10453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10453
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Parigi, Bruno M. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2008. "Diversification and ownership concentration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1743-1753, September.
    2. Colm Kearney & Valerio Potì, 2008. "Have European Stocks become More Volatile? An Empirical Investigation of Idiosyncratic and Market Risk in the Euro Area," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(3), pages 419-444, June.
    3. Yinglin Wan, 2018. "The Impact of Stock Index Futures on the Information Environment of Listed Firm: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(5), pages 147-147, March.
    4. Han, Xun & Hsu, Sara & Li, Jianjun & An, Ran, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, non-financial enterprises' shadow banking activities and stock price crash risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Ziqin Yu & Xiang Xiao, 2022. "Innovation information disclosure and stock price crash risk‐based supervision and insurance effect path analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 534-590, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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