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The Economic Future of Europe

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Author Info
Olivier Blanchard

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Abstract

After three years of near stagnation, the mood in Europe is definitely gloomy. Many doubt that the European model has a future. In this paper, I argue that things are not so bad, and there is room for optimism. Over the last thirty years, productivity growth has been much higher in Europe than in the United States. Productivity levels are roughly similar in the European Union and in the United States today. The main difference is that Europe has used some of the increase in productivity to increase leisure rather than income, while the U.S. has done the opposite. Turning to the present, a deep and wide ranging reform process is taking place. This reform process is driven by reforms in financial and product markets. Reforms in those markets are in turn putting pressure for reform in the labor market. Reform in the labor market will eventually take place, but not overnight and not without political tensions. These tensions have dominated and will continue to dominate the news; but they are a symptom of change, not a reflection of immobility.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10310.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10310

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E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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  1. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 2004. "The European Union: A Politically Incorrect View," NBER Working Papers 10342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Gilles Saint-Paul, 1993. "On the Political Economy of Labor Market Flexibility," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 151-196 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Gersbach, Hans, 2003. "Structural Reforms and the Macroeconomy: The Role of General Equilibrium Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Regulation And Deregulation In Goods And Labor Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(3), pages 879-907, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Monique Ebell & Christian Haefke, 2002. "Product Market Deregulation and Labor Market Outcomes," Economics Working Papers 726, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Robert J. Gordon, 2004. "Two Centuries of Economic Growth: Europe Chasing the American Frontier," NBER Working Papers 10662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta & Olivier Boylaud, 2000. "Summary Indicators of Product Market Regulation with an Extension to Employment Protection Legislation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 226, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sébastien Jean & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2002. "Product Market Regulation and Wage Premia in Europe and North America: An Empirical Investigation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 318, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?," NBER Working Papers 10010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Olivier Boylaud, 2000. "Regulatory Reform in Road Freight and Retail Distribution," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 255, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Andrea Bassanini & Ekkehard Ernst & Sébastien Jean & Paulo Santiago & Paul Swaim, 2001. "Product and Labour Markets Interactions in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 312, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Isabelle Joumard, 2001. "Tax Systems in European Union Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 301, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Stephen Nickell, 2003. "Employment and Taxes," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Staff Report 321, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. C.J. Krizan & John Haltiwanger & Lucia Foster, 2002. "The Link Between Aggregate and Micro Productivity Growth: Evidence from Retail Trade," Working Papers 02-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Giavazzi, Francesco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2000. "European Financial Markets After EMU: A First Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2413, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Horst Siebert, 2003. "Why Germany Has Such a Weak Growth Performance," Kiel Working Papers 1182, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  18. Marianne Bertrand & Francis Kramarz, 2001. "Does Entry Regulation Hinder Job Creation? Evidence from the French Retail Industry," NBER Working Papers 8211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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