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The Price is (Almost) Right

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Author Info
Randolph B. Cohen
Christopher Polk
Tuomo Vuolteenaho

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Abstract

Most previous research tests market efficiency and asset pricing models using average abnormal trading profits on dynamic trading strategies, and typically rejects the joint hypothesis. In contrast, we measure the ability of a simple risk model and the efficient-market hypothesis to explain the level of stock prices. First, we find that cash-flow betas (measured by regressing firms' earnings on the market's earnings) explain the prices of value and growth stocks well, with a plausible premium. Second, we use a present-value model to decompose the cross-sectional variance of firms' price-to-book ratios into two components due to risk-adjusted fundamental value and mispricing. When we allow the discount rates to vary with cash-flow betas, the variance share of mispricing is negligible.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10131.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10131

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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  36. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2001. "The Value Spread," NBER Working Papers 8242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "The Value Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 609-642, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Malcolm Baker & Stefan Nagel & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption," NBER Working Papers 12288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Cash-Flow Risk, Discount Risk, and the Value Premium," NBER Working Papers 11816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence," Working Papers 2005-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dong, Ming & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2007. "Stock market misvaluation and corporate investment," MPRA Paper 3109, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2007. [Downloadable!]
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