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International Price Behavior and the Demand for Money

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  • Arthur E. Gandolfi
  • James R. Lothian

Abstract

Oil prices, commodity prices and American monetary policy, the last operating through a variety of channels, have all figures prominently in explanations of the international inflation process in the last 1960s and early '70s. Our major purpose in this paper is to test these various hypotheses. We do so in the context of a reduced-form rational-expectations price equation which we estimate for the United States and seven other industrial countries using quarterly data for the period 1955 through 1976. The principal conclusion that emerges from this exercise is that movements in domestic money in these countries served as the key link in the inflation process. The factors that produced these monetary changes, however, differed among countries. Price shocks of various sorts were clearly of secondary importance. The other important set of conclusions concerns the demand for money. In place of a traditional stock adjustment model, we used, GLS with a second- order correct ion for autocorrelation. We believe this produced more plausible estimates of the parameters of the long-run demand function and of the adjustment process it self.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0602.

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Date of creation: Dec 1980
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Publication status: published as Economic Inquiry, Vol. 21, no. 3 (1983): 295-311.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0602

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  2. A. S. Blinder & S. Fischer, 1978. "Inventories, Rational Expectations, and the Business Cycle," Working papers 220, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Barro, Robert J., 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Scholarly Articles 3450988, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Carr, Jack & Darby, Michael R., 1981. "The role of money supply shocks in the short-run demand for money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 183-199.
  5. Darby, Michael R, 1972. "The Allocation of Transitory Income Among Consumers' Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 928-41, December.
  6. Lothian, James R, 1976. "The Demand for High-Powered Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 56-68, March.
  7. Al-Khuri, Samir & Nsouli, Saleh M., 1978. "The speed of adjustment of the actual to the desired money stock : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 181-206, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2009. "Nonlinearities In The Dynamics Of The Euro Area Demand For M1," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 1-19, February.
  2. Anthony Cassese & James R. Lothian, 1983. "The Timing of Monetary and Price Changes and the International Transmission of Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 58-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. James Boughton, 1992. "International comparisons of money demand," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 323-343, October.

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